Canada-China Relations | The warrior wolves unclench their teeth

When covering international affairs, you are often called upon to meet with diplomats. These cordial conversations often help us open doors in the country of interest. My last meeting with a Chinese diplomat in Canada was quite the opposite.

During an interview in the Chinese consulate in Montreal in August 2022, Ambassador Cong Peiwu did not raise his voice, but his words were as sharp as knives.

With regard to Taiwan. Regarding criticism of China on human rights. About Canada which must have “learned lessons” following the arbitrary imprisonment of two of its citizens to respond to the detention of Meng Wanzhou, daughter of the founder of the giant Huawei, at the request of the United States.

When, at the end of this awkward interview, I was asked to leave rapido presto inside the consulate to wait for a taxi in the street, I told myself that I had just encountered the “wolf warrior” version of Chinese diplomacy. An approach adopted in 2017 under Xi Jinping which is characterized by a combative style, in the mode of confrontation. Like the hero of Chinese action films who gave his name to this tactic of international relations, the “wolf warriors” defend their country and the Chinese Communist Party tooth and nail against all criticism.

Or, should we say, defended?

Since last summer, many experts have noted that Xi Jinping’s China has begun a shift. The chief wolf warrior, Zhao Lijang, formerly the spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, was suddenly transferred to another department. Minister Qin Jang literally disappeared overnight.

What about Ambassador Cong Peiwu?

We learned last month that the ambassador, who was in Canada during the majority of the Wanzhou affair, left Canada without the usual farewell tour.

A few days before we learned of his departure, he gave an interview to The Canadian Press in which he believed that there was no reason for Canadian-Chinese relations to be so bad, but laid down conditions so that They are improving. Among these, that Canada accepts all blame for the diplomatic tensions between the two countries and that in the name of “mutual respect”, Canada sides with China’s point of view on Taiwan, the democratic self-governed island. which Xi Jinping threatens to forcefully bring back into the fold of mainland China. Two big snakes to swallow, even if the tone is a little more conciliatory.

We will now have to see who the Chinese government will replace him with. A more diplomatic diplomat or an expert in arm twisting?

The good news is that the last few months have given us a glimpse of clearings in what appears to be a stormy sky between China and the West.

First, in Beijing, heads of state and handshakes are multiplying. Last week, Xi Jinping received the American Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, ten days after receiving the German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, who himself succeeded Emmanuel Macron.

On Tuesday, the French president and the Chinese president will go climbing together in the Pyrenees, marking Xi Jinping’s first visit to Europe since the pandemic.

For Canada, it is a little more complicated, but Minister Mélanie Joly has spoken twice with her Chinese counterpart, Wong Yi, since the start of the year. On April 18 and 19, his deputy minister, David Morrison, went to Beijing to discuss with his counterpart, Ma Zhaoxu. I contacted Global Affairs Canada to find out more about the results of its mission, but the press service took two days to finally not give me a response.

In business circles, which are suffering from the lame state of Sino-Canadian relations, we hope that these meetings are only the beginning of a rapprochement. “Reestablishing communication channels is a first step towards normalizing business. “We don’t expect China and Canada to become best friends again overnight, but having a stable diplomatic relationship will help businesses that want to operate in the world’s second-largest economy.” said David Perez-Desrosiers, of the Canada-China Business Council, as he prepared to fly to Beijing, from where he will head the organization’s office.

Strangely, trade was little affected by the diplomatic crisis between Ottawa and Beijing. There has even been an increase in Canadian exports to the Middle Kingdom in recent years. “Canada-China trade represents 40% of our trade in the Indo-Pacific, but it represents only 4% of our exports,” says Mr. Perez-Desrosiers. There is still a lot of room for growth. »

Even though China’s tone is softening a bit these days, there remains an ocean of resentment and grievances between the two countries. China did not like being talked about as a “disruptive” force in Canada’s Indo-Pacific strategy. These days, Canada is contemplating the extent of Xi Jinping’s country’s interference in the 2019 and 2021 elections.

Should we also talk about clandestine police stations in Canada to monitor the Chinese diaspora or even the expulsion of diplomats from both sides?

“Canada is in a position of requester at the moment,” notes former Canadian ambassador to China Guy Saint-Jacques. “That said, Minister Mélanie Joly will perhaps only have to do half a genuflection. The Chinese need foreign capital,” he believes. The economic slowdown in China – marked in particular by a high unemployment rate among 16-24 year olds – is not unrelated to the change of direction in Chinese diplomacy.

So much the better if the warrior wolves unclench their teeth. However, Canada knows more than most countries that it will have to rebuild ties carefully. A wolf remains a wolf.