The rating agencies Fitch and Moody’s, which must update France’s rating, could further weaken the old LR, on the front line in the face of the deterioration of public finances. He already irritates part of the majority with his pessimistic speech and his solitary initiatives.
Could Saint-Bruno’s Day, usually celebrated on October 6, have been brought forward by several months this year? “Friday is a day of celebration for Bruno Le Maire”laughs one of the colleagues of the Minister of Economy and Finance, who describes him as “a little tense” And “isolated”. Friday April 26, the rating agencies Fitch and Moody’s must in fact unveil their annual opinions on France’s debt rating.
If the majority strives to minimize the consequences of possible deterioration, this eventuality could embarrass the tenant of Bercy. “If we go down, it becomes a political problem”fears another member of the government. “The consequences would be symbolic for the head of state, but also his ministeragrees political scientist Bruno Cauvrai. L“Bruno Le Maire’s public image was built on the image of budgetary seriousness.”
“It puts the country in a very negative atmosphere”
This is already tarnished by a very delicate start to the year in terms of public finances. “The sequence was catastrophic for him”, says a ministerial advisor. At the end of March, INSEE reassessed the public deficit at 5.5% of GDP for 2023, instead of the 4.9% initially planned. In mid-February, Bruno Le Maire lowered the growth forecast for 2024 from 1.4% to 1%, and announcement a savings plan “immediate” of 10 billion euros.
At the same time, the number two in the government annoyed a good part of the Renaissance deputies, warned during an audio conference, less than an hour before his appearance on TF1’s “8 p.m.”, to which they had only been invited that morning. “It was a descending speech, without questions…”breathes a Renaissance MP.
“We are capable of dealing with bad news, but we still need to be informed.”
A Renaissance MPat franceinfo
Bruno Le Maire’s close guard defends the need to communicate quickly on this decision taken “in perfect coordination” with the executive. “There’s no good way to say thisexplains one of his advisors. If we had seen them in a room, it wouldn’t necessarily have been less brutal.” But the chosen format did not get through, nor did the very alarmist speech subsequently given in the media. The Minister of Economy “orchestrated and highlighted our own failure, and our difficulties on the subject of public financesdeplores a Renaissance deputy. He over-dramatized the situation.”
The publication, mid-March, of a new book by Bruno Le Mairethe sixth since he took office, has ruffled part of the macronie a little more. In The French Way, the former Republican executive said in particular his preference for “the protective state” rather than “the welfare state”. “He takes out his book, gives moral lessons to everyone and puts the country in a very negative atmosphere,” plague a ministerial advisor. “It worries the population when we should be reassuring,” agrees a deputy. His questions about the management of long-term conditions (ALD), at the beginning of March in The world, also triggered the anger of certain members of the majority. A few weeks later, in West France, the minister finally excluded of “touch ALD”.
“Bruno Le Maire lost this arbitration”
Within the executive, some now accuse him of “jamming all government messages” by communicating extensively on France’s budgetary difficulties. “When Gabriel Attal makes announcements on unemployment insurancehe is hit by Bruno Le Maire on savings”regrets the ministerial advisor.
“The Prime Minister hardly speaks anymore on unemployment insurance, because the subject has been rotten by Bruno Le Maire.”
A ministerial advisorat franceinfo
At the beginning of spring, Bruno Le Maire tried, behind the scenes, to push the idea of presenting a draft amending finance law (PLFR) in the summer, in order to adapt the public accounts to the degraded economic situation. But to have it adopted without a vote, in a National Assembly lacking an absolute majority, a new recourse to article 49.3 would be essential. In response, the oppositions would threaten to bring down the government, and Bruno Le Maire with it.
“Some wondered if he was not trying to provoke a motion of censure”says a Renaissance executive, what those close to “BLM” are brushing aside: “He is not a dissembler. Anyone who invents the fact that he is preparing his exit is nonsense.” At the beginning of April, Emmanuel Macron has in any case ruled out the PLFR hypothesis. Between the two men, relations are “execrable”according to a close friend of the head of state. “He has never been in conflict of loyalty towards the Prime Minister and the President of the Republic”retorts MP Louis Margueritte, close to Bruno Le Maire.
Recently, the idea of taxing superprofits to replenish state coffers also made its way into the majorityunder the leadership of the President of the National Assembly, Yaël Braun-Pivet, and the President of the MoDem, François Bayrou. At the beginning of April, Gabriel Attal announced the establishment of a mission to reflect on the “taxation of annuities”. “Bruno Le Maire lost this arbitration”welcomes a parliamentarian critical of the latter. “The minister is open to increasing the taxation of annuities or buying back shares”however assures one of his relatives, for whom the subject is distinct from that of taxes, on which “we are all clear, we do not want increases”. There “task forces” by Gabriel Attal is not “not a disavowal”wants to believe this support from the Minister of the Economy.
“He plays the whistleblower even though he is a minister”
In parallel with these hiccups between Bruno Le Maire and the rest of the executive,Dissensions with many parliamentarians have reached new heights. “His solitary outings” annoy more and moresays a MoDem deputy. “He doesn’t want to share with us, so this generates frustration, anger and a form of protest in the group”, reports an influential Renaissance MP. According to another deputy from the presidential party, the minister “comes to group meetings very rarely and as soon as he is there, he creates tensions with the majority. He is out of breath.”
“Each time, it’s tense. He rejects us. The answer is always no.”
A Renaissance MPat franceinfo
Those close to the person concerned contest these accusations, attributed to “some voices” reviews “out of 250 deputies” of the majority, and on the contrary praises “very warm welcome” reserved for the minister by elected officials. “Bruno Le Maire is right to warn about our public finances and, beyond the lower expected revenues, about our need to spend less. On this point, he is widely supported by the majority”, also assures the Renaissance deputy Antoine Armand. Nevertheless, “being at the head of Bercy at a time when you have to save money doesn’t help to be invited to aperitifs”smiles a minister.
Within the majority, there are several who do not understand Bruno Le Maire’s strategy, described as “brouillonne” by another member of the government. “He plays the whistleblower on public finances while he is Minister of the Economy. He leaks his desire to make a PLFR, then the president hits him and he returns to the doghouse,” scolds someone close to the head of state.
“Seven years at Bercy is a long time”
“Her speaking engagements are one point less per week for Valérie Hayer”the head of Renaissance’s list for the European elections, also suggests a ministerial advisor. He is not the only one to hold Bruno Le Maire responsible for the poor polls of the Macronist candidate and her list, trailing a good ten points behind that of the president of the National Rally, Jordan Bardella. “Part of the defeat in the Europeans will come” of the Minister of the Economypredicts a Renaissance deputy.
The elections of June 9 “will have no consequences” for his future, cut short those around him. The number two in the government would have no other ambition than to continue his work in his post.
“We want to stay as long as possible at Bercy. The day he decides to do something else, we will say so.”
The entourage of Bruno Le Maireat franceinfo
But the maintenance of the minister, in post since the accession of Emmanuel Macron to the Elysée in 2017, questions, to put it mildly, certain Macronists. “Seven years at Bercy is a long time. There is a weariness of power, a feeling of overpowering,” worries a deputy. Bruno Le Maire’s popularity in public opinion has deteriorated in concert with economic indicators. In the Elabe barometer for The echoesat the beginning of April, Bruno Le Maire fell by five points in one month, retaining a positive image for only 26% of respondents.
“If there is one who has always been warning about the situation of public finances, it is Bruno Le Maire. It is a bit harsh to make him take the blame for the situation”counterattacks one of his followers. Despite his detractors in the majority, Bruno Le Maire retains the support of around twenty deputies, including “Lieutenants to Life and Death” including former members of his cabinet. A hard core that could be used for the future? The hypothesis of his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election is regularly tested in the polls. “There is no question of network structuring, he has never mentioned the slightest candidacy”, sweeps away his surroundings.
But in the majority, some claim not to be fooled. “He has the desire to leave his mark and embody his own line”, deciphers a parliamentarian. It will still be necessary to largely bring together the presidential camp, which is not won. “He has no money, no support, no mandate”mocks a ministerial advisor. “Only he can imagine being a candidate in 2027”, engages someone close to Edouard Philippe. What will Bruno Le Maire do after Bercy? The mystery remains, and this is what annoys an influential MP: “It’s unreadable.”