The change has been noticeable for a few weeks. And it’s almost an obsession now in the Macron camp: how to bring the campaign to life, bring the electoral debate to life in the month left before the first round.
Two reasons explain this reversal: the status of favorite, confirmed poll after poll, and the fear despite everything that nothing will go as planned. The status of favorite is what pushes those close to the leader to already consider what a second term could be.
A minister noted that since 2002, “you have a major twitch every five years.“ A big political or international crisis, which hinders the action of the executive: European referendum of 2005, economic crisis of 2008, Arab spring of 2011, the red caps under François Hollande then the attacks of 2015, and so on. “Presidentcontinues this minister, is very aware that whoever is elected in April will experience these tensions.“ Aggravating phenomenon: the rise of extremes reveals a very divided country.
“It’s not the same thing to have a France cut in two for identity reasons and for socio-economic reasons”warns a government heavyweight, who anticipates that the next elected “will inevitably have half of the French against him”.
The opposition anticipates it too. “After the election, it’s going to be ‘The Texas Chainsaw Massacre'”, a right-wing tenor told me. Hence the need, theorize those close to Macron, to create the widest possible gathering. Campaigning, convincing, to gain room for maneuver for a second term.
There is also the fear, despite Emmanuel Macron’s favorite status, that nothing will go as planned. the “double effect kiss cool” evoked by some: the combination of a strong abstention in the first round and a strong score of the extremes. “Our voice reserve is very limited, worries a minister. Not a voice from Mélenchon will come upon us.” Conversely, Marine Le Pen is counting on a significant postponement from the voters of Éric Zemmour, on the one hand from those of Valérie Pécresse.
Scenario that gives cold sweats in Macronie: a tight second round, Marine Le Pen who wins on the wire, almost on a misunderstanding. “We have no choice, we have to hit as high as possible from the first round”, repeats the Macron camp. And so that also means actively campaigning.