After a series of defeats for its army on several fronts in Ukraine, Moscow resolved to make a brutal change of strategy to try to reverse this spiral: massive strikes on Ukrainian power stations as winter approaches.
Since early October, Russian forces have fired salvoes of cruise missiles and launched hundreds of Iranian-made suicide bomber drones at energy facilities across Ukraine, including the capital kyiv, successfully crippling some 40% of the grid. Ukrainian electric.
After weeks of grumbling and criticism in Moscow over Russian setbacks on Ukraine’s northeastern and southern fronts, Kremlin zealots have suddenly found a smile on state media.
“It is impossible to survive when there is no heat, no water, and no light,” pro-Kremlin MK Andrei Gurulev said this week after strikes on Ukrainian power plants.
“We’re sorry for everyone — we love everyone — but we were pushed into this. We have no other options,” said Olga Skabeeva, a star Kremlin propagandist and TV presenter.
Russian military analysts also applaud this new strategy, while affirming that it should have been applied from the start of the invasion launched on February 24.
“It should have been done from day one, not after eight months,” noted Moscow-based military analyst Alexander Khramchikhine, interviewed by AFP.
According to him, “the advantage of this kind of approach is that it cripples both the economy and, to a large extent, the armed forces”. And to add that there is “no risk” for Russia.
“Hate Them More”
In Ukraine, the impact of Russian strikes against energy installations has been considerable, especially in regions far from the front.
According to Ukrainian emergency services, more than 4,000 towns, villages and settlements suffered power outages this week.
Ukraine’s presidency described the situation as “critical” and on Thursday authorities imposed restrictions on electricity consumption across the country.
In the Ukrainian capital kyiv, which had not been the target of strikes since June, Mayor Vitali Klischko urged businesses, shops, cafes and restaurants to “save as much as possible” their electricity consumption on lighting and illuminated advertising.
“Even small savings within each household will help stabilize the country’s energy system,” he added on social media.
The regions of Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv and Chernivtsi (West) have implemented programs aimed at limiting energy consumption.
For now, Ukrainians seem to be ready to accept these restrictions.
“It’s not going to change our attitude. Maybe we’ll just hate them more,” Olga, who declined to give her last name, told AFP, speaking of the Russians. On Tuesday, the thermal station of his city, Dnipro (center), was hit by a strike.
Moscow’s army first failed to capture kyiv at the start of its offensive, then was pushed back past Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, before being forced in recent weeks to retreat and to abandon many conquered cities in the south and northeast.
“Asymmetric approach”
“The situation on the front is particularly unfavorable to the Russians, so they are resorting to an asymmetrical approach” by targeting energy infrastructure, Ukrainian expert Mykola Bielieskov told AFP.
The start of these massive targeted strikes also coincided with the October 8 appointment of a new commander of Russian forces in Ukraine, General Sergei Surovikin, a veteran of Moscow’s worst wars with a ruthless reputation. His mission: to put an end to the series of defeats suffered by his troops.
“Sourovikin is famous for this type of operation in Syria, destroying cities”, analyzes Mykhaïlo Samus, director of the New Geopolitics research network.
“He is trying to show Putin that he is ready to do the same in Kyiv, trying to break Ukrainian morale, exhaust Ukrainian air defenses, destroy energy infrastructure before winter and create social problems for Ukrainians,” he told AFP.
However, notes the Ukrainian expert Mykola Bieliekov, it is difficult to predict whether, in the end, this strategy will succeed. “It depends on the intensity of the strikes and the (Ukrainian) countermeasures,” he said.
Aware of this new threat, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has urged kyiv’s Western allies to provide more air defense systems, some of which have already been delivered.
Analysts also note that Russian missiles capable of hitting power plants with precision over a long distance are starting to run out, which could portend less precise attacks in the future.
Whatever happens, in Dnipro, Olga says she is ready to face the winter: “I prefer to stay in the cold, without water or electricity, rather than being in Russia”, she says.