Aircraft makers Boeing and Airbus, which raked in billions of dollars in orders this week at the Singapore Air Show, may find themselves unable to meet delivery deadlines due to supply chain problems, according to analysts.
Manufacturers are already falling behind due to a lack of spare parts and labor, following the severe impact on the sector of the COVID-19 pandemic. From engines and seat belts to wiring and screws, an airplane requires millions of parts from thousands of suppliers around the world.
Among the major contracts announced at Asia’s biggest air show, which ends on Sunday, is an order for 45 Boeing 787 Dreamliners by Thai Airways, of which Royal Brunei has also purchased four examples.
The European giant Airbus, for its part, signed an agreement in principle with the Vietnamese company Vietjet Air relating to 20 A330-900 wide-body aircraft, for first deliveries in 2026.
Honoring these contracts within the stipulated deadlines promises to be complicated and the manufacturers may have shown a little too much optimism.
According to aeronautics specialist Shukor Yusof, Boeing and Airbus have already indicated that some of their most popular models will not be available before 2030.
“New orders will struggle to be delivered due to ongoing labor and raw material shortages, logistics issues and energy costs,” says Shukor, founder of consultancy Endau Analytics.
” Bottleneck “
“It will be very difficult to increase production rates. They are not cell phones,” he adds.
For airlines, delivery delays translate into fewer seats and the need to fly older, less fuel-efficient planes, which could weigh on their profits, this expert said.
Supply chain issues were largely caused by the pandemic. Restrictions and border closures have affected shipments of raw materials. The war in Ukraine has disrupted oil supplies and caused a rise in the costs of goods and services around the world.
With the end of the pandemic, air traffic has resumed with a vengeance, with manufacturers, airlines, airports and suppliers trying to keep pace.
The supply chain “has become a major bottleneck,” said Brendan Sobie, an analyst at independent consultancy Sobie Aviation.
Due to a shortage of spare parts, planes are spending more time awaiting maintenance, while planes have been grounded due to engine problems, he adds.
For each 787 Dreamliner, Boeing needs around 2.3 million parts, some of which are manufactured by the American giant but others come from suppliers around the world, according to its website.
Airbus, for its part, has thousands of direct and indirect suppliers in over a hundred countries.
“Capacity gap”
Willie Walsh, director general of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), told a seminar before the show that supply chain problems could “continue for a few years.”
Added to this is an equally problematic labor shortage.
Boeing estimated last year that the industry would need 649,000 pilots, 690,000 maintenance technicians and 938,000 crew members over the next 20 years.
For Mr. Shukor, certain companies which had laid off pilots during the pandemic are having difficulty recruiting while manufacturers are struggling to find mechanics and technicians specialized in aeronautics.
A certain number “no longer want to return” to this sector, subject to the economic situation, with Covid having shown that their jobs were not secure.
“It has never been so difficult to fly a fleet,” assured AFP the general director of the Philippine company Cebu Pacific, Michael Szucs.