Who would have believed it? Not the Bloc Québécois. At least, not last winter.
Even the most optimistic Bloc members did not dare to speak of victory in the by-election in LaSalle – Émard – Verdun when Liberal Justice Minister David Lametti resigned.
The expectations of leader Yves-François Blanchet and his troops were modest. Certainly, Ville-Émard and the Côte-Saint-Paul sector have many French speakers. But LaSalle is more English-speaking, and the separatists have never had success in the west of Montreal.
For the Bloc, any gain would be welcomed as a victory. But they won, period.
Mr. Blanchet did nothing different, however. He kept his strategy, which was also that of his predecessor Gilles Duceppe: the “defense of Quebec’s interests.” And the leader did it with his usual tone, pugnacious without being mean or dishonest, and studious parliamentary work often out of the spotlight.
What has changed: The Liberals are collapsing, the NDP is tearing up its alliance and the Conservatives are insulting everyone. In this climate, the Bloc is becoming more than ever a reassuring safe haven.
According to reports from the field, their candidate Louis-Philippe Sauvé crisscrossed the constituency until his supporters were tired. “It’s great, we’re going to vote!”, he was assured, after yet another impromptu home visit.
He wanted to talk about the Bloc’s usual issues: French, immigration and seniors. But it was mainly housing that the residents of the Southwest wanted to talk about. And they especially wanted to express their discontent with the current crisis.
For Jagmeet Singh, the defeat is painful. He has visited LaSalle–Émard–Verdun more than eight times since Mr. Lametti’s desertion. His candidate had been conducting an unofficial pre-campaign there for several months.
True, the NDP increased its support there, from 19% in 2021 to 26%. But it failed to capture this discontent any more than its opponents. By finishing third, even by such a small margin, it will be difficult for it to continue to pretend that the election will be between the Conservatives and it.
With its national support capped at around 17%, behind the Liberals and Conservatives, we suspected it.
Still, the NDP avoided disaster. It can smile half-heartedly: it did not lose its Manitoba seat in Elmwood-Transcona. Since the beginning of his mandate, Mr. Singh had lost in every by-election.
Pierre Poilievre is not too disappointed. In Montreal, he had no hope. In Manitoba, despite his defeat, his support jumped by 14%. And across Canada, he still dominates.
For the Liberals, the disaster has been unfolding in slow motion for several weeks. This by-election in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun was a failure from start to finish. The prospective candidates were deprived of a nomination. Mr. Trudeau himself nominated a municipal politician, Laura Palestini, who was unknown except to her Italian community, whose support he had hoped for. Pro-Palestinian volunteers also dropped out because of the Liberals’ weak position on the conflict. The leader’s face was invisible on the signs. And in a desperate attempt to mobilize the allophone and anglophone vote, Mr. Trudeau questioned the Legault government’s word in an interview on a private radio station. In this interview in English, he claimed that anglophones were not, or would not be, able to get hospital treatment in English. Unsurprisingly, he did not mention the small number of cases, well and truly documented, where francophones were unable to obtain care in their language.
The Liberal leader has repeated it: he wants to stay in office. The question is whether an internal revolt will force him to change his mind. For that to happen, he would need a successor who is both popular and willing to take the reins of a worn-out party. If that person exists, no one has found him yet… And Mark Carney? He gives the impression of wanting to observe the shipwreck from a safe distance before taking back the helm.
The only consolation for Mr. Trudeau is that Jagmeet Singh is in almost as bad a position as he is. They have no interest in calling an election now. And despite his popularity, Yves-François Blanchet is in no hurry. Faced with the prospect of a majority Conservative government, he will try to extract some gains for Quebec. This balance of power will not last long and he knows it.
In other words, the red and orange torture is likely to continue for a while longer. All indications are that they will continue to fall, like autumn leaves.