A small number to start with, if I may: 622 votes.
That’s the gap between first and third place in the LaSalle–Émard–Verdun by-election. In other words: almost nothing.
This should encourage caution before overinterpreting the result of the partial.
It would have taken only a one percentage point change for the headlines to change. They could have read “Jagmeet Singh on the rise” or “Justin Trudeau saves his skin.” But in the end, it was the Bloc that won.
The race was extremely close. But it was marked by a strong and clear trend: the fall of the Liberals, who have lost 16 percentage points since 2021. And the rise of the Bloc (+6), the New Democrats (+7) and the Conservatives (+4), who have all recovered some of these votes.
Even if the liberals had held on to this ancient fortified castle, their fall would have been no less spectacular.
These nuances do not detract from the Bloc’s impressive victory. Even the most optimistic Bloc members did not dare talk about victory in the by-election in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun when Liberal Justice Minister David Lametti resigned.
Sure, Ville-Émard and the Côte-Saint-Paul sector are French-speaking. But LaSalle is more English-speaking, and separatists have rarely had success in southwest Montreal. For the Bloc, any gain would be welcomed as a victory. But it won, period.
Mr. Blanchet did nothing different, however. He kept his strategy: “defending Quebec’s interests.” And he did it with his usual tone, pugnacious without being mean or dishonest, and with studious parliamentary work often out of the spotlight.
According to reports from the field, Bloc candidate Louis-Philippe Sauvé crisscrossed the riding until his supporters were tired. “It’s great, we’re going to vote!” he was assured after yet another impromptu home visit.
He wanted to talk about the Bloc’s usual issues: French, immigration and seniors. But it was mainly housing that the residents of the South-West wanted to talk about. And they especially wanted to express their discontent with the current crisis.
For Jagmeet Singh, the heartbreaking defeat is painful. He has visited LaSalle–Émard–Verdun more than eight times since Mr. Lametti’s desertion.
His candidate Craig Sauvé had been running an unofficial pre-campaign there for several months. Of course, the New Democratic Party (NDP) increased its support there, from 19% in 2021 to 26%. But he did not manage to capture this discontent any more than his opponents. By finishing third, even by such a small margin, it will be difficult for him to continue to pretend that the next federal campaign will be between the Conservatives and him.
With its national support capped at around 17%, behind the Liberals and Conservatives, we suspected it.
Still, the NDP can smile halfway: it did not lose its Manitoba seat in Elmwood–Transcona. Since the beginning of his mandate, Mr. Singh had lost in every by-election.
Pierre Poilievre is not too disappointed. In Montreal, he had no hope. In Manitoba, despite his defeat, his support jumped by 16 points. And across Canada, he still dominates.
For the Liberals, the disaster has been unfolding in slow motion for several weeks. This by-election in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun was a failure from start to finish. The prospective candidates were deprived of a nomination. Mr. Trudeau himself nominated a municipal politician, Laura Palestini, who was little known except to her Italian community, whose support he had hoped for. Pro-Palestinian volunteers also dropped out because of the Liberals’ weak position on the conflict. The leader’s face was invisible on the signs. And in a desperate attempt to mobilize the allophone and anglophone vote, Mr. Trudeau questioned the Legault government’s word in an interview on a private radio station. In this interview in English, he claimed that anglophones were not or would not be able to get hospital treatment in English. Unsurprisingly, he did not mention the small number of well-documented cases of French speakers who were unable to obtain care in Quebec’s official language.
The Liberal leader has repeated it: he wants to stay in office. The question is whether an internal revolt will force him to change his mind. Without being impossible, it seems improbable.
A successor is needed who is both popular and willing to take over the reins of a worn-out party. If such a person exists, no one has found him yet…
And Mark Carney? The former governor of the Bank of Canada seems to want to observe the shipwreck from a safe distance before taking back the helm.
The only consolation for Mr. Trudeau is that Jagmeet Singh is in rather bad shape. He has no interest in triggering an election too quickly. And despite his popularity, Yves-François Blanchet is in no hurry. Faced with the prospect of a majority Conservative government, he will try to extract some gains for Quebec. This balance of power will not last long and he knows it.
In other words, the red and orange torment is likely to continue for a while longer. All indications are that they will continue to fall, like leaves in the fall.