Faced with a gloomy economic context, Ottawa’s room for maneuver is diminishing and deficits are widening, with no prospect of a return to budgetary balance. The Trudeau government still announces a few billion in new spending to build thousands of additional housing units, and includes small free measures to calm the rise in the cost of living, in its fall economic statement.
The government’s financial management is “responsible,” believes Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, who presented a lackluster economic statement to the House of Commons on Tuesday. Overall, it still puts nearly 13.2 billion in new spending on the table for the next six years: most of it intended to make housing more accessible and more affordable in the country.
In the short term, Canada should escape a recession, the document also indicates, based on forecasts from private sector economists. The budget deficit should even remain stable at $40 billion for the current year, compared to what was anticipated in last March’s budget (40.1 billion).
However, this does not prevent the horizon from getting darker. As in its budget last spring, the government still does not anticipate a return to budget balance.
On the contrary, the deficits will be greater than anticipated. They will continue to decrease, of course, but at a slower pace. In 2027-2028, the deficit should amount to 23.8 billion, Ottawa now estimates. In his budget, he estimated that it would be around ten billion dollars less that year, or 14 billion.
In particular, the deterioration of the economic context, inflation and high interest rates which weigh on government revenues and expenditures.
A charter and billions for housing
The new spending also contributes to keeping federal public finances in the red.
The Trudeau government is notably extending $15 billion in new loan financing starting in 2025-2026 as part of the Apartment Construction Loan Program, and dedicating $1 billion over three years starting in 2025-2026, for the Affordable Housing Fund.
Also, to help municipalities “enforce restrictions on short-term rentals”, such as Airbnb, the federal government is providing funding of $50 million over three years, starting in 2024-2025.
The Trudeau government is also putting forward a series of measures that will not cost it a penny. Among other things, he launched “the new Canadian mortgage charter” – a document intended for financial institutions which recalls six main principles that they must implement to help mortgage holders, strangled by the sharp rise in interest rates . The charter is, however, not binding.
Among the other free measures put forward: Ottawa proposes to modify the Competition Act and give it more teeth “to crack down on the abuses of large companies in a dominant position” and thus help stabilize prices.
It also plans to support the right to repair by including in the Act a clause to “prevent manufacturers from refusing, in an anti-competitive manner, to provide the means to repair devices and products”.
Absent measures
Missing subscribers: the national drug insurance program, requested by the New Democratic Party before the end of the year, and without which, the party threatened to tear up its agreement with the Liberals.
The billion dollars promised by the Liberals to establish the National School Food Program was also not announced.