It should have been the week of Pascal Paradis, the PQ candidate elected in Jean-Talon with a clear lead of 5,853 votes over his closest rival, the CAQ Marie-Anik Shoiry. We should also have talked about following up on the recommendations of the Viens commission. The Québec Ombudsman gave the Legault government a low score of 33% regarding services to Indigenous people. The minister responsible for this follow-up, Ian Lafrenière, can thank his boss. François Legault completely diverted attention from his poor performance by resurrecting a file that we thought was closed for good: the third link.
“I would say that it’s not just a big week, it’s a big year for the third link,” says Frédérick Bastien, full professor in the political science department at the University of Montreal, to whom I asked to analyze the week with me.
Lessons from a dicedone
PHOTO JACQUES BOISSINOT, THE CANADIAN PRESS
François Legault at the National Assembly on Tuesday, the day after his party’s defeat in the riding of Jean-Talon
To understand how we got here, we have to go back at least to August 23. One week before the by-election in Jean-Talon is called, The Press revealed that PQ candidate Pascal Paradis had flirted with the CAQ in 2022. The next day, Pascal Paradis responded by affirming that at the time, the CAQ had confided to him that the third link would be abandoned after the general elections. François Legault strongly denied this information, the CAQ and the PQ accused each other of lying, and the whole affair left indelible traces in addition to being reflected in the results of the by-election.
On Tuesday, the day after the defeat, the shaken Prime Minister resurrected the controversial road infrastructure project.
“His reading of the situation seems convoluted to me,” however, believes Frédérick Bastien. Deciphering the result of an election is complex, we don’t know exactly why people vote. The broken promise could have shaken trust beyond the issue of the third link. »
Same story from Éric Bélanger, full professor in the political science department at McGill University. “It’s not so much the third link as the notion of denying a promise that hurt Jean-Talon,” he observes. There is the idea that the Prime Minister’s word is not worth much. Pascal Paradis’ revelations have scratched a layer of varnish and broken the bond of trust. »
PHOTO EDOUARD PLANTE-FRÉCHETTE, LA PRESSE ARCHIVES
Minister Bernard Drainville, MP for Lévis, at the Salon bleu of the National Assembly
From humility to improvistation
Should Mr. Legault have stuck to his first reaction? On the night of the defeat, his judgment seemed more certain. When he declared: “Marie-Anik, you did not lose. It’s the CAQ and I who lost,” he gave the impression of having heard the message sent to him by the electorate. By what intellectual contortion did he arrive at the conclusion that the third link project had to be resurrected the next morning? Mystery…
During his speech [le soir de la défaite], I found him to be very humble. But you don’t reach a conclusion in 12 hours. He should have taken the time to think. The word that comes to mind is “inconsistency”, and not just this week.
Frédérick Bastien, full professor in the political science department at the University of Montreal
For Professor Bastien, this inconsistency dates back to 2022, before the electoral campaign.
“I think of the press conference in Lévis when we announced what the third link would be,” he explains. Already, the studies were not there. We claimed that they dated from before the pandemic and that they had to be redone, when clearly the impact of the pandemic was going to be negative on traffic flow. The government’s speech was already marked by incoherence. Then in April, when we abandoned the project, there was no new argument. With this week’s release, this inconsistency still stands out as a problem to me. »
“It’s very rare that we play yoyo like this with a project,” says Éric Bélanger, who is also a member of the Research Chair on Democracy and Parliamentary Institutions. Over the next three years, it is quite possible that we will increasingly ask ourselves the question of the alternative to the CAQ. We may be at the beginning of this process. »
An analysis shared by Frédérick Bastien. In the medium and long term, according to him, this inconsistency could erode public support for the government.
We were already expecting this support to lose intensity during a second term, but with this by-election, people will perhaps wonder if the government takes them for suitcases…
Frédérick Bastien, full professor in the political science department at the University of Montreal
Professor Bastien mentions the Polymeter of his colleagues at Laval University, a tool which verifies compliance with electoral promises. ” This case [du troisième lien] has the potential to become a turning point, he believes. The work of my colleagues has demonstrated that the negative impact of a broken promise is stronger than the positive impact of a kept promise. »
And it is not by pulling a rabbit out of a hat (that is to say by bringing back the third link) that we will automatically restore voter confidence. Rather, we risk fueling confusion about the government’s real intentions. In other words, the damage is done.
PHOTO EDOUARD PLANTE-FRÉCHETTE, LA PRESSE ARCHIVES
The Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Transport and Sustainable Mobility, Geneviève Guilbault, when announcing the abandonment of the third highway link project, last April
A week marquantity
The last week will also have dealt a hard blow to the image of cohesion of the CAQ. “This image is being put to the test,” recognizes Professor Bastien.
The esprit de corps of the CAQ caucus can only be weakened. We think, among others, of Geneviève Guilbault, who had to go to the front alone to announce the abandonment of the project.
Frédérick Bastien, full professor in the political science department at the University of Montreal
Yes, the image of Minister Geneviève Guilbault holding her schoolbags like a shield has marked the collective imagination. Just like the reactions of Ministers Martine Biron and Bernard Drainville who have become Olympic-caliber skaters when it comes to the third link. Not to mention all the CAQ elected officials in the Quebec region who had to face the disappointment and anger of their voters. It’s starting to cause a lot of people to be frightened by the third link.
For all these reasons, the week of October 2 risks remaining engraved for a long time in the history of the CAQ reign.