Winston Churchill said that political intrigue in Russia is like a “bulldog fight under a rug”. From the outside, all you can hear is grunts and it’s only when the bones spring up that it’s clear who the winner is.
At the moment, there is no need to pick up a corner of the carpet to discern the fierce fight that is being played out between President Vladimir Putin and the boss of the Wagner group Evguéni Prigojine, who has been kicking on the stretchers for months.
The thunderous character criticized the elites for sending their children out of the country, while the Russians send theirs to the battlefield. He accused the generals of the army of having deprived him of ammunition, while his mercenaries fell at the front.
But this time, the leader of the paramilitary group openly defied the Kremlin, taking control of the important Russian military base of Rostov, very close to the border with Ukraine, and then launching his troops to storm Moscow. .
Although Prigojine then backtracked, this rebellion marks a pivotal moment. It brings to light the cracks within the Russian forces whose command in Ukraine resembles revolving doors.
Until now, President Putin had managed to maintain control, although it is clear that his “special military operation” in Ukraine, which was supposed to last only a few days, turned into a war of attrition where the dead accumulate.
Faced with the Wagner group’s coup, the Russian president promised to punish the “traitors” who gave “a stab in the back of our country”. Or would it rather be behind his own back? The image is reminiscent of Julius Caesar falling under the knife of his adopted son.
Because it is the Russian president who gave birth to the boss of the Wagner group. After spending his twenties in prison, Yevgeny Prigojine became the “cook” of Vladimir Putin, who knows about the subject: his grandfather was the leader of Lenin and Stalin.
Putin made Prigozhin a food oligarch. He supplied schools and the army before launching his paramilitary group whose “musicians”, as he calls his mercenaries, have raised their arms in Crimea, Syria, Libya and now Ukraine.
The one who is still nicknamed “Putin’s cook” wanted to become a chef instead of the chef? For the moment, he is heading more towards Belarus, whose pro-Russian president negotiated the withdrawal of the Wagner group.
But those who dream of Vladimir Putin being removed from power to end the war in Ukraine should think twice. Sometimes you have to be wary of what you wish for.
Evguéni Prigojine is not exactly a choirboy. The club that his troops use to smash the brains of deserters has become the trademark of the Wagner group. Prigojine has also described as “excellent production” a video where we see them at work.
To freeze the blood.
Clearly, the Russian president has created a monster that is turning against him. Putin invaded Ukraine on the pretext that NATO threatened his territory. But here he is himself admitting that a “civil war” is looming in Russia. However, this danger is not the result of a dark plan hatched by the West, but rather of internal dissension, collateral damage of the invasion of Ukraine, which now threatens the stability of Russia.
For the moment, the Wagner group seems to be falling into line. But for how long ?
If the pressure rises, if the Russian President feels that he has nothing more to lose, we could find ourselves in an even more explosive situation within a country which has atomic weapons, a country which does not is not shy to invade his neighbor.
As the Russians tear each other apart under the carpet, NATO must more than ever remain united behind Ukraine. Stick together as the enemy digs his grave.