Between fear and cold

(Des Moines, Iowa) A stone’s throw from Deedee Kaiser, Donald Trump plays the game of autographs and selfies with dozens of supporters, supervised by bodyguards. He has just participated in a citizens’ assembly in Des Moines, capital of Iowa, broadcast by Fox News.

“I think he’s going to win everything, unless someone tries to physically eliminate him,” confides the food service attendant at a seniors’ residence, observing her favorite candidate. ” You see what I mean ? And I think we would have a civil war. »

A civil war?

While the former president continues to pose for the cameras and put his signature on red caps bearing the name of his movement, the 60-year-old woman explains herself.

“They are attacking him by all means,” she said, blaming Democrats for Donald Trump’s troubles with the law. “If this doesn’t work, all they’ll be left with is violence. This really concerns me. I hope it is well protected. I pray this doesn’t happen. This is my biggest worry. »

Every four years, in January, the attention of the United States and part of the world turns to Iowa, a rural state in the Midwest whose caucuses are the starting point of an electoral marathon that ends with the presidential election. Sometimes there is hope. However, on the eve of the 2024 Republican caucuses, this feeling is eclipsed by fear, and not only that of Democrats who fear the return of Donald Trump to the White House.

A country “at war”

“If Donald Trump loses, our country will never be the same. »

MAGA cap screwed on his head, Jeff Greif makes this dark prediction while waiting for the doors to open to the room where the town hall from Fox News.

The retired electrician drove two hours to cover the distance from Vinton, his hometown, to Des Moines, where he will see Donald Trump in person for the 20^e times.

“He is an extraordinary person. I love listening to it. He’s so smart,” the 66-year-old said, praising the former president for his defense of blue-collar workers and his management of an economy that the Biden administration “destroyed.”

“Inflation is just insane,” he said.

Not far from him, Debra describes the United States as a country “at war” whose “open borders” contribute to its accelerated decline. And she compares Donald Trump to General George Patton, known almost as much for his controversial and sometimes erratic conduct as for his military prowess during World War II.

“President Trump is the only one who is a warrior and a leader, and that’s what we need in the White House,” says this volunteer who claims 200,000 phone calls for Donald Trump in Iowa (and who prefers to keep quiet her last name).

Debra swears that the “war” she speaks of excludes any scenario of violence. However, when the attack on the Capitol by supporters of Donald Trump was mentioned to her, her response burst out: “First of all, the election was stolen. »

The fight for second place

There appears to be no doubt who will win the Iowa Republican caucuses. According to the average of polls from the RealClearPolitics site, Donald Trump enjoys a lead of more than 30 points. The question is who will finish second in this election which will take place in polar cold.

A third place could be fatal for Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who was banking on a good performance in Iowa to establish himself as the alternative to the former president. However, this role could fall to the former governor of South Carolina Nikki Haley.

One thing is certain, the last rallies of the 51-year-old candidate attracted larger crowds than those of her 45-year-old rival. Crowds in which Donald Trump inspires a different kind of fear.

“I don’t think Trump can win the presidential election,” Greg Crawford said before a Nikki Haley rally in Ankeny, a suburb of Des Moines. “If he lost in 2020, it’s because a lot of people hate him. And that hasn’t changed since then,” adds this banking equipment technician who refuses to trust recent surveys.

Rick Kimberley, a major farmer in the region – he hosted Chinese President Xi Jinping on his farm in 2012 – has the same doubts about Donald Trump.

“We need to bring some unity back to politics in the United States. I think Nikki Haley is probably the only one who can do it,” he said, hoping that a second place in Iowa would propel the candidate to victory in the New Hampshire Republican primary on January 23.

” We never know… ”

Unity doesn’t seem to be Ron DeSantis’ priority. At a rally in the Des Moines suburb of Clive on Thursday, one of his supporters introduced him to the crowd by declaring that “no one, frankly, has collected as many body bags of our enemies as Ron DeSantis.” .

In the audience, Laura Hannam hoped to find in the governor of Florida an alternative to Donald Trump, whose role in the events leading to January 6, 2021 discredited him in her eyes.

“Our governor [Kim Reynolds] supports it,” said the 58-year-old dental hygienist. “She is a very popular governor and her choice contributed to my interest in DeSantis. »

And even if the polls suggest a victory for Donald Trump on Monday evening, Laura Hannam is taking nothing for granted.

“You never know what can happen on caucus night. In 2016, everyone thought Trump would win, and it was Ted Cruz, with better field organization, who won. »

Eight years later, between fear and the cold, Iowa prepares its verdict.