The words of Alexander Lukashenko, the bio-Russian leader, are a little vague, a little disjointed, but the last dictator in Europe, a great ally of Moscow, ensures that kyiv is preparing a strike against his country. To the south, Belarus shares a border of nearly 1,000 kilometers with Ukraine. “We have been warned”, he said yesterday in front of military and security officials, through unofficial channels. Adding, with his usual delicacy, having conveyed this message to President Zelensky: “With your dirty paws, you don’t touch a single meter of my territory.”
>> War in Ukraine: what to think of the announced deployment of Belarusian troops alongside Russia?
Its neighbors to the west also take it for their rank. Alexander Lukashenko assures that Poland and Lithuania – which he considers far too involved in NATO – harbor radical Belarusian fighters and that these countries let them prepare “sabotage and terrorist acts”. “If you want peace, prepare for war”asserts the Belarusian leader who announces the deployment of a joint military group with Russia.
The number of men expected to be deployed is unknown, as is the location and date. Is it simply for the Belarusians to train new recruits freshly mobilized or to go into the field to help soldiers in difficulty? For the moment, it is still very theoretical. Although in the east, in Orcha, opponents saw tanks, old tanks mounted on trains conveyed to the border with Dombass.
So far, to keep its back, Belarus has deliberately remained very passive. It was content to play the role of a rear base for Russian planes and a transit airlock for soldiers. His own men never signed up. Alexander Lukashenko, who has a developed sense of opportunism, has no desire to have to manage an unpopular conflict which would weaken him.
The Belarusian leader owes a lot to Vladimir Putin who puts pressure on him. Two years ago, when his fraudulent re-election nearly went wrong and the country rose up against the charade of a sixth term, he was backed by Russia. Including when he embarked on a blind repression of his opposition. He who has always sworn loyalty to the Kremlin has lost more and more autonomy over the years – he, too, needs Russian money and gas. Lukashenko has undoubtedly arrived at the moment he dreaded: showing his support for Russia through action. He probably has no choice.