The Chinese government was pleased on Monday to have succeeded in convincing the archipelago of Nauru to cut its diplomatic ties with Taiwan, demonstrating Beijing’s desire to maintain pressure on the island shortly after a key election won by the camp independence.
The president of the small Pacific archipelago, David Adeang, declared that he was acting “in the best interests” of the people of his country by rallying behind Beijing.
INFOGRAPHICS THE PRESS
The Asian giant has repeatedly used its economic weight in recent years to melt the list of states officially supporting Taipei’s autonomist aims rather than its “reunification” plan. Today there are only 12 left.
PHOTO TAKEN FROM SOCIAL NETWORK
David Adeang, President of the Nauru Archipelago
The announcement of Nauru’s change of course recalls the extent of the efforts made by the Chinese authorities to “cut off oxygen” to Taiwan. At the same time, considering Saturday’s election, it highlights the limits of its approach, judges Guy Saint-Jacques, former Canadian ambassador to China.
Incumbent Vice President Lai Ching-te was elected president, allowing the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) to win a third consecutive run for the position.
“The result of the election in Taiwan is a great victory for democracy. The population did not allow itself to be intimidated,” notes Mr. Saint-Jacques, who does not expect the result to exacerbate the risks of military intervention against the island in the short term.
The Chinese army is undermined by corruption problems and is not ready to carry out a complex operation like that which would be required to invade Taiwan, notes the analyst.
PHOTO LAM YIK FEI, THE NEW YORK TIMES ARCHIVES
Sovereignist Lai Ching-te won the presidential election in Taiwan last Saturday.
Beijing also intends to wait for the result of the American presidential election before deciding on the course of action to follow, since a victory for former President Donald Trump could significantly change the situation, he says.
Joe Biden’s administration has repeatedly reiterated its support for Taiwan in recent years, with the head of state even going so far as to publicly promise American military support in the event of an attack from Beijing on a few occasions while his country normally maintains “strategic ambiguity” on this subject.
The United States does not officially recognize Taiwan as a state in its own right, but maintains close ties with its leaders and regularly sends dignitaries there to emphasize their solidarity, much to the dismay of Chinese authorities.
The visit in 2022 by former Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi had particularly outraged Beijing and led to the launch of large-scale military exercises which had raised fears of slippage.
Muscular actions
David Sacks, a China expert at the Council on Foreign Relations, expects the outcome of the weekend’s election to strengthen President Xi Jinping’s determination to maintain pressure on Taipei even if the strategy followed seems relatively counterproductive.
PHOTO CHIANGYING-YING, ASSOCIATED PRESS
The flag of the Nauru archipelago was removed from its flagpole in front of a building in the diplomatic district of Taipei, Taiwan.
The result of the vote is not totally negative for Beijing, he says, since the DPP lost the majority it had in Parliament and now has one seat less than the Kuomintang, a more conciliatory formation with China.
However, the fact remains that a significant part of the population did not vote as Beijing wanted and that such behavior deserves, in the minds of the Chinese authorities, punishment.
David Sacks, Council on Foreign Relations
The analyst particularly expects muscular actions on the economic level, which could lead to the reestablishment of import taxes likely to penalize Taiwanese companies established in regions supporting the DPP.
Military pressure will undoubtedly also be maintained even if we should not expect a “Pelosi 2.0”, he says.
“Solid as a rock”
Actions on the diplomatic level will also continue, notes Mr. Sacks, who sees the announcement of Nauru’s decision the day after the election as an illustration of this determination.
“They’re not going to reach out to Taiwan and say we need to try to find a way to get along. This is not how Beijing works,” he adds.
Chen Binhua, spokesperson for the Chinese government quoted by the daily Global Timesindicated that his country’s desire to “resolve the Taiwan question and achieve national reunification remains unwavering” and that the determination of the Chinese Communist Party “is as solid as a rock”.
Lai Ching-te said he hoped to open new avenues of dialogue with China while warning that he would protect the island from “continued threats and intimidation” from its powerful neighbor.
“The call for dialogue is not going anywhere. It is certain that they will reject it,” notes Mr. Saint-Jacques.