François Bayrou has assumed the role of Prime Minister of France amid a politically fragmented landscape. His primary challenge is to build a coalition without relying on the far-right Rassemblement National, while gaining support from the moderate left, which is skeptical of his leadership. Bayrou must navigate opposition from various factions, including the Socialists and Greens, and address concerns about his allegiance to Macron. With a history of mixed political stances, his appointment has sparked controversy and highlights the urgent need for party reconciliation.
France’s New Prime Minister Bayrou: A Challenging Path Ahead
Just nine days following the downfall of the Barnier government, François Bayrou has stepped into the role of Prime Minister of France. Leading a small centrist party and regarded as a trusted advisor to President Emmanuel Macron, Bayrou’s mission is to establish a stable political environment amidst a fragmented party landscape.
The immediate challenge for Bayrou is to create a government coalition that does not rely on the far-right Rassemblement National. To achieve this, he must seek collaboration with the moderate left. Acknowledging the difficulty of this endeavor, Bayrou remarked to reporters prior to his formal appointment, “Everyone knows how difficult this will be. It is essential that we find a way to unite rather than divide.” The call for reconciliation is more pressing than ever.
Challenges from the Left
For Bayrou to navigate a potential vote of no confidence from the far-left party LFI or the Rassemblement National, he must gain the support of some factions within the moderate left—namely, the Socialists, Greens, and Communists. However, the Socialists have already declared their unwillingness to join a government led by Bayrou. According to party leader Olivier Faure, Macron’s decision to appoint Bayrou disregards the election results from July 7, 2024, where the left coalition NFP emerged victorious, thereby deepening the democratic crisis.
Skepticism also looms from the Greens, with Marine Tondelier stating that Bayrou’s government would only be acceptable if he aligns with their platform. She warned that maintaining hardliners in key positions and resisting changes to controversial policies could lead them to express distrust at the first opportunity.
Moreover, Communist party leader Fabien Roussel emphasized that Bayrou must refrain from utilizing Article 49.3, which allows legislation to be passed without Assembly approval. Roussel asserted, “Only if Bayrou commits to not using Art. 49.3 will there be a chance for meaningful compromises.” This could pave the way to avoid a vote of no confidence.
Rassemblement National Takes a Cautious Stance
Jordan Bardella, the leader of the Rassemblement National, has signaled a wait-and-see approach. He is not immediately calling for a vote of no confidence against Bayrou’s government but has outlined critical boundaries: no tax hikes for businesses or low-to-middle-income earners, and no reductions for retirees.
Bardella noted that Macron has positioned himself firmly in power, and the new Prime Minister must recognize his lack of democratic legitimacy and parliamentary majority. “He needs to reach out to all parties and voters,” Bardella stated.
Marine Le Pen also weighed in, urging Bayrou to engage with the opposition to create a reasonable budget, warning that failure to do so would merely extend the existing political turmoil and lead to inevitable failure.
At 73 years old, Bayrou faces the daunting task of forging a coalition in a politically divided landscape while appealing to both the left and conservative Republicans. Success in this mission is crucial for stabilizing the government.
Macron’s Controversial Choice
With a long history in French politics, including previous roles as Minister of Education and briefly as Minister of Justice, Bayrou’s appointment has stirred mixed reactions. His past decisions, particularly his votes against the ultra-conservative Nicolas Sarkozy and in favor of the Socialist François Hollande, have left some Republicans wary of his allegiance. While he shares some political ground with the left, he is also perceived as a steadfast supporter of Macron.
In 2017, Macron’s ascent to the presidency was significantly bolstered by Bayrou’s Mouvement démocrate. This connection has led the left party LFI to reject Bayrou outright. Spokesperson Manuel Bompard labeled Bayrou’s appointment as “another middle finger from Macron to democracy.”
In conclusion, the prospects for stable political conditions in France appear bleak, underscoring the urgent need for reconciliation among the divided parties.