Shots in all directions. Molotov cocktails thrown by hooded men. Spectators hiding between the rows of seats to escape the projectiles. Total horror for hundreds of Russian citizens who thought they were going to see a concert.
At the time of writing, there was little certainty about the circumstances surrounding the killing which took place Friday evening at Crocus City Hall in Krasnogorsk, a suburb of Moscow. The Islamic State jihadist group, which Russia fought in Syria, claimed responsibility for the attack, but it would be difficult to jump to conclusions, even if U.S. intelligence services believe it to be plausible. The extremist Islamist group tends to take credit for many misdeeds.
One thing is certain however. Many Muscovites must have a strong feeling of déjà vu.
This is not the first time that an armed group has burst into a Moscow theater and attacked civilians. In October 2002, around fifty Chechen terrorists took hostage more than 800 people who attended the musical Nord-Ost in a theater in the Russian capital.
A freelancer in Moscow at the time, I covered this huge hostage-taking which lasted three days as well as the Russian operation which put an end to it. Nearly 170 people, including 130 hostages, were killed.
The event left deep marks on the families of the victims who never received answers to their questions, particularly about the controversial rescue operation. It also weighed down the morale of Russians in general.
Before this attack, the second Chechen war, which was taking place in the south of the country, was not on the radar screen of the vast majority of Russian civilians, even if the deaths were counted in the thousands. The attacks of Nord-Ost had been a rude awakening. Overnight, war invaded downtown Moscow.
A lot of water has flowed in the Moskva since the tragedy of Nord-Ost. Russia has transformed itself. Vladimir Putin, who came to power in 2000, gradually took control of the Russian state apparatus, the country’s media and military strategy.
He ended the conflict in Chechnya in 2006 by imposing a near-totalitarian regime led by Ramzan Kadyrov. Two years later, the Russian army intervened in favor of separatist groups in Georgia.
The Kremlin then turned its attention to Ukraine, taking control of Crimea in 2014 and fueling conflict in the country’s east. In 2015, Vladimir Putin became President Bashar al-Assad’s best friend by getting involved in the Syrian conflict, helping the dictator attack fighters from the Islamic State group, but also all opposition forces.
It was at this time that Wagner was born, ostensibly a group of mercenaries offering their services to governments in need, in reality an enterprise supported by the Kremlin to carry out its nefarious works.
Since then, Wagner has extended its tentacles across Africa where mercenaries are fighting Islamist nebulae, in addition to participating in the Russian invasion of Ukraine launched in February 2022. Even if his first boss, the businessman Yevgeny Prigojine died in the very suspicious explosion of his plane last year, the organization is still active, sometimes under other names.
PHOTO ALEXANDER ZEMLIANICHENKO, ASSOCIATED PRESS
Vladimir Putin during a meeting in Moscow with his electoral team on Wednesday, after his re-election as head of Russia on March 15
Through all these military interventions, Vladimir Putin’s Russia collects enemies, but claims to have absolute control in front of its population. She invites him to take it easy while his soldiers are at the front. This same population is stunned when it is suddenly targeted.
In principle, the illusion of invincibility that Vladimir Putin has over Russia should take a hit after Friday’s attack. Especially since the American secret services had recently launched a flashing of lights, predicting an attack targeting civilians. Vladimir Putin denounced the warning, calling it “blackmail”. He probably did not want at all any threat to hang over the presidential election – not democratic for two rubles – of March 15.
The president should swallow his saliva today, but that won’t happen. The Kremlin’s well-oiled propaganda machine will control the message, even try to turn the terrible attack to its advantage in order to rally the Russians behind it.
On Friday, before the Islamic State’s claim, regime spokespersons did not hesitate to attribute the killing to Ukraine.
If the past is any guide to the future, we can also expect Vladimir Putin to try to reestablish his aura of omnipotence by cracking down on those responsible for the attack – not an easy task if it comes to of the Islamic State – but also against the slightest critical or dissident voices, particularly within the large Muslim minority in Russia, which represents 10 to 15% of the country’s population.
Unfortunately, in all of this, it is the victims of the Crocus City Hall terrorist attack and their loved ones who will be the big losers. It is a safe bet that – as was the case after the episode of Nord-Ost –their suffering and their questions will be swept under the carpet.