Europe faces uncertainty with Donald Trump’s return to the White House, prompting concerns over transatlantic relations, security, and economic ties. While European leaders express diplomatic optimism, apprehensions linger about potential NATO withdrawal and Trump’s past trade policies. The EU is proactively adapting its strategies to reduce reliance on the U.S. and bolster its defense capabilities. Additionally, Trump’s climate positions pose risks to Europe’s green initiatives, yet there remains hope for collaborative solutions as the new administration approaches.
Europe’s Reaction to Trump’s Return
There’s no denying that in Brussels, the epicenter of the EU and NATO, the outcome of the recent American elections was not what many had hoped for. With Donald J. Trump set to reclaim the White House, Europe now faces the challenge of navigating this new reality. What implications will his second term, which many fear could be even more tumultuous than the first, have on transatlantic relations? Are the security and unity of Europe at stake?
In an effort to maintain diplomatic decorum, official congratulations poured in on Wednesday morning. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte tweeted that Trump’s leadership is vital for the strength of the alliance. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen expressed her eagerness for a “strong transatlantic relationship,” while EU Council President Charles Michel highlighted the “historical bond” between the USA and the EU, emphasizing the desire for continued constructive cooperation.
Concerns Over Security and Economic Relations
Despite this façade of unity, a palpable sense of anxiety looms over Brussels. While they are no longer caught off guard as they were in November 2016, preparations for a second Trump presidency have been made. Regardless of the election outcome, it was evident that the US-European relationship would undergo significant changes. Even under a potential Kamala Harris administration, the American focus would likely pivot to the Pacific and the rising challenge posed by China. Nevertheless, a Harris-led government would have offered a more predictable dynamic.
The economic implications of Trump’s presidency are expected to be daunting for Europe. He has shown a willingness to impose tariffs and trade barriers, a trend that the Biden administration has partially continued. During his campaign, he even hinted at implementing blanket tariffs against strategic allies.
Beyond economic shifts, the most pressing concern for Europe is the impact of a “freed” Trump on security policies. There are fears that the USA might withdraw from NATO or drastically cut its financial and personnel commitments to the alliance. Such apprehensions stem from Trump’s past remarks, including his description of NATO as “obsolete” and his suggestion that the US would be slow to assist Europe in times of crisis.
At NATO headquarters, leaders are attempting to downplay the threat of an American withdrawal. Rutte, a seasoned participant in Trump-related discussions, emphasized that Trump understands the significance of the transatlantic partnership for American security. His critiques have primarily urged European allies to boost their defense spending, which remains below the agreed two percent of GDP. Rutte believes that this focus on defense spending is a positive outcome of Trump’s influence.
In summary, there is no immediate panic at NATO, according to a frequent diplomat there. While the US remains the pivotal member of the alliance, there is an understanding that cooperation with European partners is essential, especially given the rising tensions in the Pacific. No contingency plans have been created in anticipation of a Trump victory, indicating a level of confidence among NATO officials.
On the other hand, the EU has taken a more proactive approach. Anticipating Trump’s return or the emergence of a similar leader, EU officials have adapted their strategies to reduce dependency on American decisions. The “strategic compass” that the EU adopted in 2022 aims to bolster its security and defense capabilities, allowing for swifter responses in crises, whether in collaboration with allies or independently.
There are additional worries within the EU that a Trump administration could hinder progress on climate initiatives. His recent comments about boosting oil and gas production, along with the potential for the US to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, pose risks to Europe’s green transformation efforts.
Nonetheless, the EU remains hopeful. A Commission spokesperson noted that climate policy is intertwined with common security interests, highlighting the mutual benefits of addressing climate change. The upcoming World Climate Conference in Baku could provide insights into the EU’s climate strategy moving forward.
As January 20 approaches, when the new American government officially takes office, discussions between Commission President von der Leyen and Trump are expected. However, a formal high-level meeting before inauguration is unlikely due to diplomatic norms. European leaders will have their first opportunity to address the consequences of Trump’s election at upcoming summits in Budapest, where Viktor Orban, a long-time critic of the EU, is likely to be the most pleased participant.