The Kremlin strongman is preparing to use this symbolic date for Russia to mark a milestone in its war in Ukraine. But which one?
The opportunity for a strong symbol. Russian President Vladimir Putin is preparing to use the date of May 9, the anniversary of the victory of the former Soviet Union over the Nazi regime of Adolf Hitler in 1945, in the calendar, to mark an important milestone in the ongoing aggression launched against Ukraine. A war of invasion initially justified by the strongman of the Kremlin to “denazify” the former Soviet republic.
However, more than two months after the outbreak of hostilities, the scenarios facing the dictator are as numerous as they are uncertain, with the backdrop of operations on the ground that are bogged down or exhausted and Westerners who maintain a concerted hard line in the face of the Kremlin’s arrogance and cynicism. Which will he choose?
The announcement of a victory?
Vladimir Putin must make people forget his failures: the failed capture of kyiv, unexpected military losses in the ranks of the Russian forces, the death of a dozen generals, the disappearance of the Moskva, flagship of its navy, sunk in the Black Sea… And the approach of May 9 could help it do so, by allowing it to “claim a victory, whether there is one or not”, summarizes in an interview political scientist Mai’a Cross, specialist in relations between Russia and the European Union at Northeastern University in Boston. “Vladimir Putin usually uses this date to display Russia’s military might and to deliver an important speech outlining the country’s foreign policy. »
It is in this context that the dictator risks claiming that Russia has achieved its objectives by claiming, for example, that it now has total control of Mariupol and by proudly announcing the destruction of the Azov regiment in hiding, with the civilians evacuated for a few days, in the basements of the Azovstal steel complex, and which has inflicted severe losses on Russian troops since February 24.
“Declaring victory by occupying the Donbass is also certainly Putin’s goal as this date approaches, believes Ukraine and Russia specialist Alexander Motyl, contacted by The duty at Rutgers University–Newark, USA. But it is not yet clear that the Russian forces will achieve this, due to the firm resistance of the Ukrainian army, which inflicts high losses on Russia, and a counter-offensive supported by the delivery of weapons shipped by Westerners. »
A reality that the strongman of the Kremlin could seek to circumvent by “announcing the creation of a territory under trusteeship, “Novorossia”, New Russia, by this date”, warns Bohdan Kordan, professor emeritus at the University of Saskatchewan. The concept refers to this historic region, a settlement of the Russian Empire in the 18thand century including the cities today of Mariupol, Odessa, Kherson, Kirovograd, and, further west, the surroundings of Donetsk as well as the Moldavian regions of Transnistria and Gagauzia.
A sign of its intentions: last week, the Russian occupier announced with great fanfare the introduction of the ruble as an exchange currency in the Kherson region, an “act of annexation and a serious violation by Russia” of the UN Charter, denounced the person in charge of human rights in the Ukrainian Parliament, Lyoudmila Denissova, on Telegram.
“Putin would benefit from using May 9 to present Russia’s surrender instead [et reconnaître la victoire de l’Ukraine], advances for his part the political scientist Lubomyr Luciuk, of the Royal Military College of Canada. But, of course, this is unlikely. He does not have enough humanity to admit that he was beaten by Ukraine and its remarkable president, Volodymyr Zelensky. »
Continue the war?
May 9 or not, for the United States, the war in Ukraine promises to last several more months, estimated the American Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin, in the last days. This assertion was taken up by the White House to support its military aid plan for Ukraine announced last week and which Vladimir Putin could come to support by announcing the continuation of the aggression, but by seeking to place it under a other day.
“Symbols are not only used to affirm the achievement of a political objective, but also to affirm that something new is about to begin, judge Bohdan Kordan. The current war with Ukraine, and with the West, will determine whether Russia emerges from the conflict as a great power or not. May 9 may therefore become an opportunity for Putin to announce a new beginning, claiming that he has restored Russia’s historical identity as a great power and an empire. »
An identity that necessarily involves the extension of the Ukrainian conflict even further, as on the territory of Moldova, another component of the Soviet nesting doll that the Kremlin dreams of recomposing.
Last week, explosions also shook the pro-Russian separatist region of Transnistria, east of Moldova, which, like its Ukrainian neighbor, has moved closer to the West and has begun steps to integrate the European Union (EU), raising the ire of the Russian dictator. Two radio antennas and a building of the security agency in the regional capital of Tiraspol were in the sights of these “provocations” carried out by Russia to justify a military intervention in this territory, according to the Ukrainian intelligence services.
“The control of southern Ukraine is also a corridor to Transnistria, where there are also cases of oppression of the Russian-speaking population”, claimed on April 22 General Rustam Minnekayev, deputy commander of the forces of the Central Russian Military District, paving the way for another “Russian military operation” in Moldova. Like Moscow did in Ukraine.
“Push the war further: this is certainly what Vladimir Putin wants, but can he? asks political scientist Mai’a Cross. The reality is that the Russian army has proven to be weak, disorganized and is now quite exhausted. »
“It was not very rational to embark on this war which turned into a geopolitical and economic disaster for Russia, but Putin did it, underlines Professor Alexander Motyl. In his troubled mind, anything is possible, including the continuation of this war, despite the higher death toll in the Russian ranks that it might cause. »
A Third World War?
The worst is never certain, but it is not impossible.
Thus, even if the outbreak of a global conflict “would be extremely counterproductive for Russia”, even if any “protracted conflict would be very difficult for her to sustain, due to the global and concerted nature of the economic sanctions” which imposed since the start of its aggression against Ukraine, believes Mai’a Cross, the specter of a globalization of the ongoing war cannot be ruled out as May 9 approaches.
“Russia, in my opinion, has slowly gone from an anti-democratic and anti-liberal state to a typically fascist state” now capable of anything, comments Bohdan Kordan.
Tone up. Last week, the head of Russian diplomacy, Sergei Lavrov, claimed that NATO has become a legitimate target for Russia, because of the weapons that its member states are now delivering to Ukraine in the open.
More than half of US military aid to Ukraine since the war has been sent to the beleaguered country in the past two weeks alone, fueling in Russia the idea that the West is becoming a threat to the “Russian world”, according to the first secretary of the Russian Communist Party, Gennady Zyuganov.
“The Anglo-Saxons came [en Ukraine] to fight in order to dominate the planet”, he claimed a few days ago, during a ceremony marking the day of Lenin’s birth, while expressing his support for the offensive launched by Vladimir Putin in Ukraine.
Last week, Vladimir Putin again brandished the threat of nuclear weapons by evoking a “response […] lightning fast” if “someone intends to […] create unacceptable threats to Russia,” he said, the day after a meeting in Germany of some 40 countries to discuss strengthening military support for Ukraine.
“If he’s desperate for some sort of victory, in the shadow of the heavy losses he’s suffered, this weapon can enter into his calculations,” Mai’a Cross thinks. But that’s the most unlikely scenario. »
Because the escalation would also put Putin on a minefield. If it affects one of the member countries of NATO, it would indeed cross the only “red line” established by the West since the beginning of this conflict. “It would lead to the dismemberment of the Russian Federation — an interesting prospect — and the probable death, in punishment, of Vladimir Putin for his status as a war criminal, which he certainly is,” Lubomyr Luciuk said.
The problem is that “rationality is not the forte of fascist leaders,” Bohdan Kordan points out, which “at this point makes the likelihood of global conflict still very real.”
“If he succeeds in taking the Donbass, but does not initiate a peace process, we will know at that moment that his grandiose ambitions are ready to lead him to another world war”, concludes Alexander Motyl.