From Berlin, Washington, London, Ottawa… to kyiv. The announcements made this week on the shipment of heavy tanks to Ukraine, after months of dithering and strategic hesitation, have just opened a new chapter in the support granted by the West to the former Soviet republic.
They also confirm in passing the solidity and determination of the alliance of Western countries in the face of the Russian aggressor, and this, as we approach the first anniversary of the invasion of Ukrainian territory launched by Moscow last February.
This sharing with the Ukrainian army of a few hundred tanks from the modern inventory of NATO armies gives Ukraine a little more hope of holding back the advance of Russian troops on the eastern and south of the conflict. But kyiv still risks needing much more than just this new contribution of heavy equipment to push Russian troops out of its internationally recognized borders, and to begin to envisage a return to peace.
“Even if they reinforce the capabilities of the Ukrainian armed forces in the short term, the tanks that NATO countries will bring into Ukraine have very little chance of becoming a decisive factor in this war, said in an interview with the To have to war historian Alexander Hill, a professor at the University of Calgary, Alberta. The mobilization of Russia is now much more effective than at the start of the conflict and the country has more significant reserves of men and material”, on the eve of a spring announcing the resumption of the Russian offensive on the ground.
It is in this context that confirmations, in flurries throughout the week, of the shipment to Ukraine of German-made Leopard 2 tanks and American M1 Abrams tanks, were greeted with relief by the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, who has been demanding these heavy weapons from Westerners since the start of the conflict.
After Berlin and Washington on Wednesday, Ottawa took part in this coalition of sharing last Thursday by announcing that 4 of its 82 Leopard 2 tanks would be heading to Ukraine “over the next few weeks”, indicated the Minister of Defense , Anita Anand. Germany will send 14. The United States? 31 copies of his Abrams. This should bring to nearly 120 the number of Western tanks delivered to kyiv in the coming months by all of Ukraine’s allies, Spain, Finland, the Netherlands, Poland, but also Norway, who also followed suit.
“The Russians had about 2,800 combat tanks at the start of the war and they lost about 1,300,” summarizes in an interview Anthony King, professor of war studies at the University of Warwick, joined this week in the United Kingdom. With shipments from the West, the two camps are approaching parity: 1,500 Russian tanks against 900 Ukrainian tanks. Besides Western tanks, Abrams, Leopard, Challenger 2 [modèle offert par les Britanniques le 14 janvier dernier], are all considered superior to modernized Russian T-72s. »
The presence of these Western tanks should also make it possible to solve a problem of supply of 125 mm ammunition used by the T-64 and T-72 tanks of the Ukrainian forces, as well as Russian ones, and whose reserves are dangerously decreasing by two sides of the battlefield. With their 120 mm cannon, Western tanks will be able to be “fed” with ammunition from NATO stocks, which are fuller.
“It is very likely that the decisive battles to come this spring will take place in urban areas, the cities of Svatove, Kreminna or Lugansk, continues Mr. King. In these environments, tanks are going to be vital. But on their own, they will not be enough. »
A good start
The Ukrainian president is well aware of this, he who, on Wednesday evening, thanked the West for their significant contributions to his defensive military arsenal, while demanding more: long-range missiles, rocket launchers, anti-aircraft defense systems or more fighter planes.
On Friday, Belgium responded by announcing the rapid dispatch of anti-aircraft missiles, anti-tank missiles, machine guns, grenades and many other military equipment to “enable Ukraine to continue to defend itself against the Russian invasion” , detailed the Minister of Defense Ludivine Dedonder, during a press conference.
“What Ukraine needs most are of course combat tanks, but also air defense systems, combat aircraft, more sophisticated drones, artillery ammunition and, above all, continuous flows information that allows him to strike the Russian positions cautiously, while doing the least possible damage, a necessity since the war is taking place entirely on its territory, comments in an interview the political scientist Lubomyr Luciuk, specialist in Ukraine at the Royal Military College from Canada. On all these fronts, Western aid has been crucial from the beginning and it remains so, even if, unfortunately, it always arrives a bit late. »
However, the hesitation could well begin to fade, almost a year after the start of an invasion that Moscow wanted expedited and which finally turned, under Ukrainian resistance, into a war of attrition. This is the belief of Ukrainian military analyst Oleg Zhdanov who says that by agreeing to send tanks to kyiv, the West has also just crossed the Rubicon, which in the future should facilitate the sending of other weapons, probably more lethal. “The handing over of Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine marks a major shift in the policy of Western allies, who have ceased to fear escalation and are now ready to challenge Russia in the war for resources,” he said. said, quoted by the Associated Press. “The West is forced to open the doors of its military arsenals more widely to Ukraine”, to support it in its defense of the values common to democracies.
Delicate solidarity
And that does not bode well for Vladimir Putin, who has been betting for more than a year on the fragmentation of the Western alliance to better subjugate the former Soviet republic and impose his imperialist aims on it. It is this lack of unity that allowed its first territorial conquests in Ukraine in 2014. It is now facing another signal: the United States, the countries of the European Union, the United Kingdom, Canada are no longer there just to prevent a defeat for Ukraine, but now to ensure a victory for kyiv against the Russian aggressor. And this, while continuing to advance with caution to contain an inescapable anger of the bear that the prospect of a defeat can only amplify.
“This is not an offensive threat against Russia”, insisted on ensuring this week the American president, Joe Biden, while displaying the unity of the allies on the aid sent.
“We are doing what is necessary and possible to support Ukraine, but at the same time we are preventing an escalation of the war, towards a war between Russia and NATO”, for his part said the German Chancellor before the Bundestag , the lower house of his country’s parliament.
A change in policy which also involves, on the side of France, a rapprochement now in the discourse of the idea that this military aid is played out in a context of self-defence, enshrined in article 51 of the Charter of the UN. The article evokes a natural right, “individual and collective, if an armed attack occurs against a member of the United Nations” and makes it possible to reject out of hand the accusations of an attack by the West against Russia, which Moscow maintains on purpose to maintain all the pressure on Ukraine.
“The delivery of military equipment in the exercise of self-defence […] does not constitute a co-belligerency”, specified Thursday the spokesperson of the French ministry of Foreign Affairs, Anne-Claire Legendre, thus justifying the present aid, while undoubtedly preparing the ground for those to come.
With Agence France-Presse