The announcement of his return was noticed. After 13 years of absence from the American political scene, the fallen candidate for the vice-presidency of the United States in 2008, Sarah Palin, officially launched last week in the race for the nomination to occupy the sole Alaska’s representative seat in Congress.
The snap election was triggered by the sudden death in March of Don Young, who represented Alaska in the House for nearly 50 years.
But the quest for renewal of the former muse of the Tea Party, this ultraconservative movement which paved the way for Trumpism at the beginning of the century, is far from being taken seriously by everyone in Alaska, despite the dubbing of Donald Trump on Sunday evening. The candidate must indeed deal with the failures of her past and a roadmap which make her above all an attraction, but certainly not “the favorite”, summarized this week the political commentator Henry Olsen in the pages of the washington post.
“The attention Sarah Palin is getting by competing in this special election is going to be totally intoxicating for her, but most of all this election is going to give her a good hangover,” Drops in an interview at the To have to Republican political strategist Art Hackney, who knows the candidate well and has advised politicians in that state for more than three decades. Few people here believe she raced to win. It’s a publicity stunt. Nothing more. Besides, no rational person who has followed her performance in public service is going to want her to actually become Alaska’s sole representative in Congress. It would be awful. Don Young represented all of Alaska. Sarah Palin would be Sarah Palin’s MP. »
“Most voters in Alaska don’t give her much credibility as a politician,” said political scientist Glenn Wright, a professor at the University of Alaska Southeast, in an interview. Many other candidates for this position have a much stronger political record than his and have been active in state politics for a long time. In this context, I would not be surprised if she managed to score a few points in this primary, but surprised if she won the ballot” next August.
Elevator return
John McCain’s running mate during the 2008 presidential election surprised everyone last Friday by launching in extremis in the race to succeed Don Young.
“Public service is a calling, and I would be honored to represent the men and women of Alaska in Congress, just as Rep. Young did for 49 years,” she posted on her Facebook account. . A return to the stage quickly welcomed by Donald Trump, who, on Sunday, gave his support to the Republican icon, as a return of the elevator, to believe his words. “Sarah shocked many when she backed me up early in 2016, and we came out on top,” the former president said in a statement. Now it’s my turn! Sarah has been a champion for Alaskan values, Alaskan energy, Alaskan jobs, and great Alaskan people. »
Despite an image damaged by the revelations of recent months on the coup attempt orchestrated on January 6, 2021 by the populist and his entourage, and a grip on the Republican Party which is beginning to loosen, the support of Donald Trump could have a significant impact on the rest of this primary, said state policy specialist Diddy Hitchins, who teaches at the University of Alaska, joined in Anchorage.
“Remember Sarah was one of the founders of Trumpism,” he said. She was Trump before Trump. The support given to Sarah Palin by the ex-president should therefore guarantee her the vote of the Trumpists, who are numerous here, at least to hoist her to the top of this primary. »
In 2020, the state voted 53% for the Republican presidential candidate, particularly in rural Alaska, where Mme Palin built her political career as mayor of Wasilla, then as governor of the Nordic state, before being propelled onto the federal scene.
But this reading of the environment is contradicted by Henry Olsen, who wrote this week that “Trump conservatism is a minority position, even in Alaska”, where the candidate will also need “moderate Republicans and independents for the support” until the final round.
A fierce opposition
The road to success in this election should therefore not be in a straight line for the conservative, who is preparing to face some fifty other candidates who have entered the race, including several prominent figures in local politics. Among them is Republican and conservative Nick Begich Jr., who comes from one of Alaska’s most famous Democratic political families, and who had already announced his intention to run for representative long before Young’s death. There is also the independent Al Gross, who tried his luck in the Senate in 2020, or the Republican senator Josh Revak, from the Anchorage region, where more than 60% of the state’s population resides.
“Sarah Palin’s term as governor was marred by several scandals, before her resignation in 2009 and her retirement from politics”, recalls Glenn Wright, who believes that these traces, including those of the “Troopergate”, could be remembered to the fond memories of voters and harm his candidacy. In 2008, the curator illegally fired Alaska’s commissioner of public safety after he refused to terminate the contract of “trooper” Mike Wooten at the request of the governor. It was the ex-husband of Palin’s sister, then at the center of a particularly belligerent divorce.
“She was a terrible governor,” says Art Hackney. She was also a poor running mate. The only thing she can win in this election is visibility. Nothing more. »
Last October, a poll conducted by the Alaska Survey Research revealed that only 31% of registered voters in that state had a favorable opinion of the former governor, compared to 51% who viewed her rather unfavorably. A constant perception since 2018 and that Mme Palin will have to reverse by June 11, and the first round of this special primary, to be able to continue the road to the midterm election next November with the three other candidates having received the most votes.
Moreover, to put the odds on her side, Sarah Palin would have already hired the campaign manager of Donald Trump in 2016, Corey Lewandowski, to orchestrate his return, just like the strategist of the Trump 2020 campaign, Michael Glassner, according to blogger Suzanne Downing, well versed in behind-the-scenes state politics.
A configuration of forces to try to make history a second time after becoming the first woman to be part of a Republican presidential ticket in 2008 – after Democrat Geraldine Ferraro in 1984 – seeking to succeed in her return to politics, unlike Ferraro.
In 1992, the Democrat had run for one of New York’s two seats in the US Senate, in vain, then had failed again in 1998, this time losing the primary for another post of senator.