[Analyse] Georgians don’t want a Russian-style fate

With the fear of a Russian-style authoritarian drift, thousands of Georgians again took to the streets of this former Soviet republic of the Caucasus on Wednesday evening to denounce the adoption of a bill furiously reproducing a draconian measure adopted by Moscow more than 10 years ago. A predictable opposition that has been expressed since the beginning of the week in this country where, as in neighboring Ukraine, citizens now aspire more to draw closer to the European Union and to join NATO than to go back and suffer the influence of the Kremlin which imposed a war on them in 2008.

What ignited the powder?

On Tuesday, the Georgian parliament adopted in first reading a bill on “foreign agents” which wants to force non-governmental organizations (NGOs), citizens’ groups or the media receiving more than 20% of their income from another country to declare itself as “foreign agents”, on pain of fines.

For the chairman of the ruling Georgian Dream party, Irakli Kobakhidze, the measure is inspired by a similar law in force in the United States, the Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA) adopted in 1938, in order to put more transparency in Georgian political life. But for its critics, it is rather a law that replicates one passed by the Kremlin in 2012 to silence the opposition and limit the public spaces where dissenting voices can be heard.

This law is absolutely unconstitutional and goes against the will of the Georgian people to become a member of the EU

Incidentally, the bill, adopted at first reading this week, was carried by a faction of deputies who left the ruling party to give life to a new political formation called “khalkhis dzala”, People’s Power, which has since denounced months the influence of Washington and the West on Georgia.

“In our polarized political climate, this must be seen as an attempt by the ruling party to prepare the ground for the 2024 elections to win a fourth term, by muzzling the opposition and its critics”, said, during a videoconference interview, the Georgian political scientist David Matsaberidze, joined Wednesday at the State University of Tbilisi, in this Caucasus country.

“In Georgia, NGOs and partisan media are watchdogs that curb the more authoritarian aspirations of politicians in power by exposing corruption and oligarchy,” adds Magdalena Dembińska, Georgia specialist at the Department of Political Science of the ‘Montreal university.

Does this law compromise Georgia’s rapprochement with the European Union (EU)?

This was suggested on Wednesday by the head of EU diplomacy, Josep Borrell, who condemned its adoption, speaking of a text “incompatible” with the values ​​of the international organization that Georgia is nevertheless seeking. to join. The former Soviet republic also wishes to join NATO, in order to ensure its development and its security against a threatening Russian neighbour.

In 2008, a war with Moscow led to the annexation of its separatist provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia by Russia, like Ukraine’s Crimea. As with Ukraine, Vladimir Putin sees any rapprochement of Georgia with the West as an existential threat to his country.

Last June, the EU granted candidate status to Ukraine and Moldova, but asked the government in Tbilisi to initiate several reforms before obtaining this status. Passing a law undermining freedom of expression and seeking to suppress political opposition was certainly not one of them.

“I don’t think that all this is orchestrated by Moscow, says Magdalena Dembińska, but Russia must be very happy to witness this division within the country. »

Ironically, the Foreign Agents Bill is supported by the ruling party, which is openly liberal, pro-European and anti-Russian, but which since the outbreak of the Russian invasion war launched against Ukraine, now finds itself in a precarious balance between Brussels and Moscow.

The government of Prime Minister Irakli Garibachvili, while giving the impression of leaning towards the West, nevertheless remains under the influence of the oligarch and multi-billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, the most powerful — but also the most discreet — man. of Georgia and founder of the Georgian Dream party, who built his fortune on his relations with Russia: it is estimated at 4.8 billion, according to the magazine Forbes.

The conditions for joining the EU, by now becoming less theoretical, come into conflict with its interests. He could thus seek, with this controversial law, to induce Brussels to refuse the candidacy of Georgia while reducing the influence of organizations financed by Europe and the United States to better satisfy his ally Putin.

Is the Georgian government playing with fire?

Visiting the United States, Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili called for the repeal of this law, which “jeopardizes Georgia’s hopes of joining the European Union”, she said, and assured Tuesday that she was going to veto it. A pious wish, however, since with an absolute majority of 76 votes, Parliament can easily overturn the choices of the president.

Still, this law has a high potential to further inflame Georgia, where the population supports in a proportion of 85% the entry of his country into the alliance of European countries, according to a poll carried out last November. The same sounding indicates that 78% of Georgians oppose the free movement of Russian citizens without visas on their territory.

In Georgia, NGOs and partisan media are watchdogs that curb the more authoritarian aspirations of ruling politicians by exposing corruption and oligarchy

On Wednesday, tens of thousands of people demonstrated in the streets of the capital amid the flags of the country, but also those of the European Union and NATO, saying once again “no to Russian law! »

“This law is absolutely unconstitutional and it goes against the will of the Georgian people to become a member of the EU”, denounced Badri Okoujava, a young historian aged 26, quoted by Agence France-Presse.

“The ideology of this government is disconnected from that of Western civilization,” lamented Giorgi Labushidze, 33. “We will not allow them to make Russia define our future,” added 16-year-old Elène Ksovréli.

“Students are the key to this opposition and they are more and more numerous in the streets”, indicated in an interview with the Duty Georgian political scientist David Matsaberidze. “It remains to be seen how far they will decide to take their protest and how the opposition movement will structure itself. »

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