also early elections, in one round, with an immediate and radical result

The other vote of the week is that of the legislative elections in the United Kingdom. On Thursday, July 4, according to a voting method very different from that in force in France, the results will be proclaimed in a radical way, in the evening, after a single round.

On Thursday, July 4, 2024, the British vote for their legislative elections. Everyone expects the left to return to power on Thursday evening, because the voting method is formidable. To be elected to the House of Commons, it’s quite simple, you have to come first in the single round. It’s a single-round, single-member constituency election, so the candidate who comes first in terms of the number of votes is simply elected.

In the United Kingdom, as in France, we are witnessing early elections, wanted by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. Similarities with France, because when he decides to call voters to the polls, the English Prime Minister knows that it will be difficult. His camp is given in the polls at 23% while the left peaks at 44% of voting intentions. But, just like Emmanuel Macron, Rishi Sunak believes in himself to convince the British. He believes above all in the rather favorable economic results that are crossing the United Kingdom, such as the decline in inflation or even good growth. A risky bet that is far from being won.

The outgoing chamber is conservative, with 344 seats for the right and 205 for Labour. The rest of the seats are divided between mainly small parties. It was elected in 2019 under Boris Johnson.

In this context, what matters in the United Kingdom is to come first. If France had the same voting system, the National Rally would be in power today. If the vote were single-round, and we compare it with what happened in France on Sunday, July 30, it would have been a no-brainer. If we add the 38 National Rally deputies elected in the first round of the legislative elections with the 258 who came first, the far right would have 296 elected, the New Popular Front 157 deputies, the presidential camp 69 elected and the Republicans only 33.

The calculation would have been different if the voting method had been proportional in one round, as was the case in France in 1986. This shows how crucial the voting method is in an election and how all of this must be handled with caution. But the electoral division is also essential in the results of elections. The last division in France dates back to 1986, and we owe it to the former minister Charles Pasqua.

In the United Kingdom, to run for election, a candidate only needs to collect 10 signatures from voters in a constituency and pay a deposit of 500 pounds (590 euros). This gives rise to some unusual candidacies. In south London, a certain Chris French created a party in the name of his pub, which allows him to appear on the ballot papers and offer his establishment an advertisement in all the polling stations in his constituency.

The Prime Minister will also face the candidacy of a certain Mr. Trash-Face, who has proclaimed himself an “intergalactic space warrior” and who appears with a helmet that looks like a trash can.

Legislative elections are still taking place Thursday in the United Kingdom. Members of Parliament are elected for a maximum of 5 years. The House of Commons has 650 seats, which are divided as follows: 533 represent England, 59 Scotland, 40 Wales and 18 Northern Ireland. A bill envisaged reducing the number of MPs to 600, but the text was never adopted.