The Liberals looked downcast as they entered the halls of Parliament Tuesday morning, the day after their defeat in LaSalle-Émard-Verdun — a second setback in three months in a Liberal stronghold during a by-election.
Following a vote count that ended in the early hours of Tuesday morning, Elections Canada announced that Bloc candidate Louis-Philippe Sauvé came in first with 8,884 votes (28% of the total), 248 votes more than the Liberal candidate.
“Obviously, it’s never fun to come so close and not win a by-election. We know we have a lot of work to do to regain people’s trust,” said Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who spoke briefly to reporters before Tuesday’s cabinet meeting.
Asked what explained this defeat, the Prime Minister indicated that there would be “all sorts of reflections to be made on this subject”.
Several ministers in his cabinet have also discussed the approach to take in the next campaign.
“It’s definitely heartbreaking when you lose a campaign by 248 votes. […] “We take this with great humility,” admitted Tourism Minister Soraya Martinez Ferrada, who also serves as co-president of the Liberal campaign.
Last June, the Conservatives also defeated the Liberals by just 590 votes in the riding of Toronto-St. Paul’s.
Minister Martinez Ferrada believes that more resources will now be needed at the end of the next campaign.
“From now on, all the counties will be very close campaigns. Every vote counts. Our strategy is to ensure that each county has a solid organization to lead a close campaign,” says the Hochelaga MP.
The next general election is scheduled for October 2025, but could come at any time in the next year with the end of the deal between the Liberals and the NDP.
On the way to the cabinet meeting, Minister François-Philippe Champagne, also co-director of the campaign, hammered home that it would be necessary to “redouble efforts” to regain the confidence of voters, without specifying what these efforts would consist of.
“I was on the ground [de la circonscription montréalaise]”People were telling us about their concerns. It’s affordability, housing issues and immigration issues. We’re going to think about that,” he told reporters.
Leadership test for Justin Trudeau
Despite the new Liberal defeat, several ministers maintain that Justin Trudeau remains the best person to guide his troops in the next elections.
The surprise defeat to the Conservatives in the Toronto–St. Paul’s byelection earlier this summer had shaken the Liberal leader’s leadership. Mr. Trudeau had, however, assured that he intended to remain leader of his party.
“The country is going to need a good dose of optimism in the coming months. And I think Justin Trudeau embodies the positivity we want to see across the country,” said Minister Champagne.
He assures that “confidence is there” among the liberal troops.
In addition to the two by-election losses, the Liberals continue to lag in national polls, far behind Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives. The Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) has 43% of the national vote, compared to 21% for the Liberal Party.
This summer, rumors began circulating that Pablo Rodriguez, Quebec’s political lieutenant, was considering leaving his post to run for the leadership of the Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ).
On Tuesday morning, Mr. Rodriguez merely congratulated the candidates before rushing into the cabinet meeting. He has yet to confirm his intentions publicly.
“The Liberals are finished”
The New Democratic Party (NDP) for its part retained its seat of Elmwood-Transcona during another by-election in Manitoba, Monday evening.
According to NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, the results of these two races are a clear message for the Liberal leader.
“The Justin Trudeau Liberals are finished. People are tired of the Liberals,” he said in the foyer of the House of Commons before question period.
Even though his party finished third in Lasalle-Émard-Verdun, Mr. Singh is pleased to have gained “momentum” in Montreal.
“It shows that we can win in Montreal, we can win in Quebec,” he said.
The NDP won 26.1% of the vote, closely behind the Bloc Québécois (28%) and Liberals (27.2%) in a three-way race.
On his X page, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre said the results in the Montreal riding were “devastating” for the prime minister. “Voters sent a clear message: Trudeau is no longer worth the cost,” he said.
He promises to table a motion of censure at the first opportunity to try to bring down the government.