(Lisbon) The Portuguese will be called to the polls on January 30, 2022 for early legislative elections caused by the split between the socialist government of Antonio Costa and his former allies of the radical left over the next state budget.
Conservative President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa on Thursday confirmed his intention to dissolve parliament and decided on the date of the elections, which should normally have been held in the fall of 2023.
The rejection of the budget has “totally reduced the base of support from the government”, while 2022 will be “a decisive year for the sustainable exit from the pandemic and the social crisis that has hit us”, argued the head of the State in a televised address.
This will be the third national election that Portugal is organizing in the space of a year, after the presidential election last January and the municipal elections at the end of September.
Even before the rejection of the finance law for 2022, which plunged Portugal into a political impasse a week ago, Mr. Rebelo de Sousa had warned that this would result in triggering early legislative elections.
The head of state sought to force the government and the extreme left parties to reach a compromise, because, according to him, the budget was “fundamental” to revive the economy thanks to the European funds of the post-economic recovery plan. COVID-19.
” Difficult time ”
The radical left still voted against the finance law, alongside the right-wing opposition, sealing the end of the alliance that had allowed Antonio Costa to come to power at the end of 2015.
This “ideological” decision will have “an electoral cost” for the Left Bloc as well as for the Communist Party, which “will be penalized for not having supported a budget which was modest, but which was not austerity”, commented political scientist Marina Costa Lobo.
Antonio Costa has already said he is ready to campaign for “a strong, stable and sustainable majority”, but, according to this analyst from the Institute of Social Sciences (ICS) at the University of Lisbon, the elections are coming for him at “a difficult time”.
“There is a certain disenchantment with the Socialist Party”, she noted, recalling that the victory of the PS in the municipal elections was largely tarnished by a surprise defeat in the Portuguese capital and the disaffection of many voters.
In 2015, the whole of the left united for the first time since the Carnation Revolution of 1974, in order to unravel the austerity policy implemented by the right in exchange for the international rescue plan granted to Portugal in 2011.
Primary right
Renewed in 2019 with 36% of the vote, but remained at eight seats of the absolute majority, Mr. Costa then dispensed with renewing the agreements ensuring the stability of his minority government.
Then, after taking advantage of favorable economic conditions to restore purchasing power while consolidating public finances, Mr. Costa refused to continue to make the concessions demanded by his former allies, worried about the social impact of the health crisis.
On the right, the two conservative parties are in the throes of infighting that could benefit the far-right Chega party, which entered parliament in 2019.
Opposition leader Rui Rio is even risking his place in the internal elections scheduled for December 4, which will serve as the primary against MEP Paulo Rangel.
“The calendar is very tight” and “the race remains very open”, because right-wing voters tend to be “very sensitive to leaders and the dynamics of victory”, or “this is very important to make the vote play useful” in the face of extremes, explained political scientist Marina Costa Lobo.