Advance analysis of the Ontario elections

Barring a cataclysm, Ontarians will go to the polls in a week and return Doug Ford’s government to power. Its future electoral triumph can be explained both by Ontarians’ lack of interest in politics and by the fact that the Progressive Conservatives have defined the central question of the vote. Moreover, Ford’s populist turn and the division of the left in the province solidified his position as favourite.

The disinterestedness of the political thing

The winter was politically divisive in Ontario with the occupations of downtown Ottawa and Toronto, as well as that of the Ambassador Bridge in Windsor due to health measures related to COVID-19. That two of the four leaders of the main political parties contracted COVID-19 last week reminds us that this disease is still with us. However, voters, like politicians, claim that is not the case because they want to move on.

It is therefore not surprising that the campaign did not arouse the interest of voters despite the high stakes. It seems that Ontarians are tired of talking about politics.

Even the fact that Doug Ford is holding several campaign events behind closed doors and his candidates opting out of local political debates barely raises an eyebrow in the electorate. This is great news for the Prime Minister, as history shows that low voter turnout most often benefits the outgoing government.

The definition of the central question of the vote

Ford’s opponents would have liked these elections to turn into a referendum on Ford himself. Despite a tumultuous first term for Ford, especially before the pandemic hit, opposition parties appear to have failed to effectively attack his credibility. Ford remains the most popular political leader in this election campaign.

Long before the election was called, Ford was able to identify the political issue that was of most concern to Ontarians: the rising cost of living.

He quickly implemented measures and made promises that would put more money in people’s wallets. We are thinking here of the reimbursement of license plate renewal costs, the abolition of tolls on the highways and the temporary reduction in the price of gasoline.

Ford’s actions aren’t necessarily the best way to tackle inflation, but by targeting motorists, the Progressive Conservative Party has bought the vote of the greater Toronto suburbs, essential to its victory. The New Democratic Party and the Liberal Party copied Ford and also promised multiple rebates for Ontarians. But it was too late, the voters’ choice was made at the start of the campaign!

Ford’s populist turn

Ford’s political success is further explained by his populist turn. Whereas in 2018 he was elected on a decidedly more ideological right-wing platform, emphasizing reducing the size of government and taxes, the prime minister now accepts budget deficits. It simply gives Ontarians what they ask for and it works!

Positioning himself as close to the people, Ford courted the workers’ vote, which has traditionally gone to the New Democrats, by promising the creation of new, well-paying jobs. He was even able to garner the support of several unions in the construction industry. This winning strategy, neglected by his party since the days of Bill Davis in the 1970s, can make the difference in certain ridings where the fight promises to be hot between Progressive Conservatives and New Democrats.

The Ontario Left Division

Finally, the Progressive Conservatives were able to take advantage of the division of the Ontario left during the election campaign. Neither Andrea Horwarth’s NPD nor Steven Del Duca’s Liberal Party was able to mobilize the anti-Ford vote, although it was not negligible.

With his more left-leaning ideological stances, Horwath failed to retain the vote of those who left the Liberal Party in 2018 for the NDP due to the unpopularity of Kathleen Wynne’s government. Having risen to Liberal leadership at the start of the pandemic when all the spotlight was on Premier Ford, Del Duca has struggled to make himself known to Ontarians. By dividing the vote, the opposition parties let the Progressive Conservatives sneak into the lead.

Worse still, the NDP and the Liberal Party fiercely attacked each other. In fact, they knew the die was cast in favor of the Progressive Conservatives so they spent the final weeks of the campaign fighting for official opposition status at Queen’s Park. It is still too early to tell who will come in second place, New Democrats or Liberals. However, one thing is certain: there will be a lot of pressure for the leader who will come in third place on June 2 to resign.