Tension in Russia escalated on Saturday as troops from the paramilitary group Wagner advanced towards Moscow. If the rebellion has been curbed a few hundred kilometers from the capital, its consequences will be felt for weeks, even months, specialists estimate.
The eyes of the world remained on Russia on Saturday. Kilometer by kilometer, the troops of the paramilitary group Wagner advanced towards Moscow, in an insurrection unseen for decades. Then, in an equally unexpected turnaround, the mercenaries accused of treason by Russian President Vladimir Putin turned back 400 kilometers from the capital.
“We were not far from a coup, which is rare in modern Russia,” notes political scientist Pierre Binette, a specialist in Russian foreign policy issues. “It’s certainly not over, he believes, and it will lead to changes. »
On Friday, Wagner’s leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, launched an armed rebellion to undo the army’s chain of command and “liberate the Russian people”. At the head of thousands of soldiers, he crossed the Ukrainian-Russian border to take control of the city of Rostov-on-Don, located 1,200 kilometers south of Moscow. Then, throughout the day, a convoy of its fighters went up to the country’s capital.
According The Guardian, Vladimir Poutine would have flown from Moscow in direction of the North-West, Saturday afternoon. His whereabouts are unknown at this time.
PHOTO REUTERS
Vehicle carrying Wagner Group fighters driving near Voronezh on the highway linking Rostov-on-Don to Moscow
Did the mercenary Yevgeny Prigojine want to overthrow the Kremlin? Force the change of the Russian general staff? The experts consulted by The Press throughout the day could not decide on Saturday.
“It’s like Frankenstein,” imagined in an interview Guillaume Sauvé, a specialist in domestic and foreign policy of Russia at the University of Montreal. Yevgeny Prigojine, “it’s the horrible monster that Putin allowed to develop because it was useful to him. A private army, with immense room for maneuver, in Syria, in Africa, then in the Donbass, he continues. There, it is the creator who gets his hand bitten. But will the creature be able to eat its creator? I doubt “.
The rest of the day proved him right.
Turnaround for Prigozhin
At the end of the day, following negotiations led by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, the leader of Wagner finally announced that his troops were returning to his camps in Ukraine to prevent “Russian blood from flowing”.
The convoy was then less than 400 kilometers from Moscow, according to Agence France-Presse.
According to washington postUS spy agencies had received information in mid-June indicating that the paramilitary group was preparing an armed action against the Russian defense.
PHOTO GAVRIIL GRIGOROV, PROVIDED BY SPOUTNIK, AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE
Russian President Vladimir Putin during his address to the nation on Saturday
Russian President Vladimir Putin – who has long tolerated criticism from Yevgeny Prigojine – went public on Saturday morning to denounce the “betrayal” of the rebels, promise to “punish” them and warn Russia against a “civil war”. “.
[Le président russe] felt that the situation was dangerous, because he would never have done this if he hadn’t worried about his own safety, his own power.
Pierre Binette, specialist in Russian foreign policy issues
In his view, the insurrection led by Yevgeny Prigojine should also bring together other opponents in the Kremlin.
” [Le chef de Wagner] has obvious political intelligence, and military intelligence too. I think he would not have embarked on this adventure without securing the support of Russian soldiers, other Russian militias, ”said the political scientist.
A rapid advance for Wagner
The rapid advance of Wagner’s mercenaries towards Moscow on Saturday tends to support this hypothesis, according to Mr. Binette.
“There are gray areas,” he observes. Like the fact that the army did not intervene [davantage pour lui bloquer le chemin], and that Prigojine received logistical support, fuel, etc. »
“There was no resistance, and when there is no resistance, it is a form of support”, also notes François Audet, director of the Canadian Observatory on Crises and Action humanitarian organizations from the University of Quebec in Montreal (UQAM).
PHOTO ALEXANDER ERMOCHENKO, REUTERS
Wagner’s fighters leave Rostov-on-Don under the gaze of the crowd on Saturday evening.
Another striking image: at the end of the day, Wagner’s fighters withdrew from Rostov-on-Don to the cheers of dozens of inhabitants who chanted “Wagner, Wagner! “, according to an AFP journalist.
However, the situation would have been different if the troops had reached Moscow, according to specialists.
PHOTO ALEXANDER NEMENOV, AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE
Russian soldiers standing near a highway entrance leading to Moscow
“There are a lot of military forces in Russia, explains Mr. Binette. There are the official armed forces, but also many militias. And there are also the military forces of Putin’s protection, which are nevertheless very numerous. »
“The regime is certainly weakened, but there is still the Russian National Guard, which is a kind of army within the Army,” added Mr. Sauvé. And there is the Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation (FSB) which has militarized forces that obey the regime. »
In other words, clashes were to be expected once the mercenaries arrived at the gates of the capital, experts say.
It is in this context that Evguéni Prigojine finally announced to backtrack at the end of the day. “Our columns turn around and we go back in the opposite direction to return to the camps,” he said.
Prigozhin in exile in Belarus
After the departure of his troops, the leader of Wagner should escape the prosecution with which Vladimir Putin had threatened him.
PHOTO PROVIDED BY CONCORD, REUTERS
The leader of the Wagner paramilitary group, Yevgeny Prigozhin
The criminal investigation against him will be dropped and he can go to Belarus, the Kremlin announced on Saturday. None of the fighters of the Wagner group, which plays a key role alongside the Russian army in Ukraine, will also be prosecuted for their coup. Russia has even offered them roles in its military, according to the BBC.
“No one will persecute [les combattants], [en reconnaissance des services rendus] on the Ukrainian front,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. He defended the need for an agreement with Mr. Prigojine to avoid a “bloodbath”.
“We are grateful to the President of Belarus for his efforts,” also welcomed the Kremlin spokesman.
Happy Ukrainians
In Ukraine, residents of Kyiv rejoiced on Saturday at the revolt of the Wagner group, shortly before it turned back. They hoped that he would weaken the Russian troops in Ukraine and help the Kyiv counter-offensive.
“I expected something, but not so fast and not there. I thought everything was going to start after the end of the war, but it started earlier and that’s a very good thing,” rejoiced Ilya Tsvirkoune, 21, interviewed by AFP in the center of the capital. .
With Agence France-Presse