Situation as of February 24, 2022
Russia causes surprise on February 24, 2022 by attacking Ukraine on four fronts in eight different places. The primary objective is to bring down Kyiv, the capital, which confirms from the outset that this is a war of aggression to destroy the Ukrainian state, the first such war on European soil since Germany’s invasion of the USSR in 1941, which had begun in Soviet Ukraine. The whole South is in danger.
Situation as of March 18, 2022
In the first three weeks, it was Ukraine that caused the surprise by offering extraordinary resistance. Russia gets bogged down on the northern front and fails to take Kyiv. None of the major bombed cities fell – Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Mariupol. The rift in the Ukrainian armor is to the south, where Kherson and towns along the Sea of Azov coast like Melitopol give way without a fight. Military installations near Lviv are targeted for the first time.
Situation as of March 25, 2022
The first great turning point of the war. Militarily, Russia is withdrawing from the northern front after failing to conquer Kyiv. Its losses, in terms of elite troops and equipment, are considerable. On the psychological level, the discovery of corpses, mass graves and torture chambers in Boutcha, on the outskirts of Kyiv, reveals that the war of aggression is also a war of elimination of Ukrainian identity, a shock wave deep.
Situation as of May 20, 2022
After three months of incredible resistance, the Ukrainian fighters of Mariupol, the third largest city in Donbass (the other two, Donetsk and Luhansk, have been out of Ukrainian control since 2014), refugees in the immense Azovstal metallurgical complex, surrender. This is Russia’s first strategic victory, since a “land bridge” now unites Russia (grey area east of Mariupol) with Crimea. This is what Ukraine will try to take back in 2023.
Situation as of November 14, 2022
The second great turning point of the war. Against all expectations, after having lost the city of Sievierodonetsk (province of Luhansk) during the summer, Ukraine launched a counter-offensive and recaptured the territories of the province of Kharkiv (in the east) lost since February, as well as the city of Kherson to the south. This rout by the Russian army led Putin to declare a “partial” mobilization and an annexation of the occupied territories (some of which would be taken over by the Ukrainians a few weeks later).
Situation as of February 10, 2023
Russia has been trying for months to bring down Bakhmout on the eastern front, at staggering human costs, but only a small nearby town, Soledar, has fallen. The Russian tactic, unveiled in Mariupol, remains the same: almost total destruction of the cities that the country claims to “liberate”, to which is added the use of “assault waves” of the First World War type. The question is whether the Russian army has the capacity to launch a major offensive before the Ukrainians do.