A year of war in Ukraine | David and Goliath

Age, background, personality, tactical sense, objectives… One could not imagine more opposite profiles than those of Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky. Crossed… and contrasting portraits.


Age

Vladimir Poutine : 70 years

Volodymyr Zelensky : 45 years old

Journey

Cheese fries : KGB agent (1975 to 1990), official at the Saint Petersburg City Hall (1991-1995), senior official in the administration of Boris Yeltsin (1995-1999), President of Russia since 2000, with a parenthesis as chief government, between 2008 and 2012.

Zelensky: Bachelor of law, comedian and actor on Ukrainian television, where he made a name for himself by playing the role of the Ukrainian president in the series servant of the people. President of Ukraine since 2019.

He said

Cheese fries : “The goal [de cette opération militaire] is to protect people who have been victims of genocide perpetrated by the Kyiv regime. For this, we will strive to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine…” (February 23, 2022)

Zelensky: “I need ammunition, not a driver…”, when he refuses to be exfiltrated from the country at the start of the war (February 26, 2022)

He surprises with…

Cheese fries

His ability to hide the war from the Russians through propaganda, repression and media control. With the military mobilization, however, the information has become more difficult to conceal.

Zelensky

His bravery. We thought he would run away. He stayed to fight and even goes to the front line, knowing that the Russians are looking to eliminate him.

Its strong point

Cheese fries

Hard to say, considering that he did not achieve his military objective, namely the total and rapid conquest of Ukraine. But for Yann Breault, assistant professor at the Royal Military College Saint-Jean, Putin at least has the ability “to seize opportunities to make short-term gains”. In this sense, he says, the Russian leader would be “more of a tactician than a strategist”.

Zelensky

His spectacular mastery of the art of communication. The Ukrainian President impresses with his ability to touch not only the hearts of Ukrainian citizens, but also that of the international public. “It’s not just that he’s able to communicate, it’s that the communication is sincere and authentic,” says Dominic Arel, professor at the University of Ottawa and holder of the Chair in Ukrainian Studies. He finds the words, he finds the way. For Yann Brault, his strength lies in “not getting bogged down in very complex grammatical structures. He speaks in very simple Ukrainian, which strikes a chord. It is one with popular emotion”. Quite the opposite of Putin, who cultivates an increasingly inaccessible tsar aura.

Its weak point

Cheese fries

A lack of clear vision. His original plan – to take Kyiv in three days – did not work. But what next? “His goal is to invade the whole of Ukraine, but how can that be accomplished? We do not know. The tactics change every two months, there is no big plan,” observes Maria Popova, a political scientist from McGill University. Yann Breault specifies that Putin’s relationship with his army “has never been imbued with trust”, which would partly explain his strategic setbacks.

Zelensky

A lack of military experience. Imagine: four years ago, the man was playing in a TV series! But he knows how to surround himself and work in a team. “The Ukrainian army has a whole array of foreign military advisers, including Canada, who have played an important role in the Ukrainians’ ability to defend the country,” said Dominic Arel.

His best shot

Cheese fries

He managed to keep his regime stable, despite military setbacks and international opprobrium. The Russian economy has not collapsed despite the Western sanctions package. A feat, notes Yann Breault: “We managed to limit the impacts. The resilience of the Russians surprised more than one. The Russian Prime Minister [Mikhaïl Michoustine] kept a low profile, but it was very effective in avoiding the collapse of the internal economy. And Putin has managed to build alliances or partnerships with powers like China, like India…”

Zelensky

The great victory of the Ukrainians remains the defense of Kyiv in the first weeks of the conflict. Putin’s plan was not devoid of common sense, but only worked on the southern front. Not on the northern front. “Kyiv’s defence, Zelensky’s ability to stay in the capital, that’s where it all came down to. It’s a big win for him. I think it will go down in the history books as the birth certificate of a truly independent Ukrainian nation,” says Yann Breault.

His mistake

Cheese fries

He completely underestimated the capacity of resistance of the Ukrainians. Their desire to free themselves from Russia. So much so that the capitulation expected in 72 hours has still not taken place. “Mr. Poutine lives in an alternative world, explains Dominic Arel. His decision to go to war was catastrophic in almost every way for Russia. He took it ignoring the reality he had in front of him. That is, Ukraine not only exists, but also now has an army, which in 2014 did not [lors de l’invasion de la Crimée par les Russes]. His energy blackmail with Europe does not seem to work any more, adds Maria Popova. “He thought that the unity of Westerners would quickly crumble. It didn’t happen. »

Zelensky

Difficult to find fault with him, given the Ukrainian successes. But his biggest mistake is probably not to have believed the implausible. “Ukraine was not fully prepared for this invasion, recalls Dominic Arel. Until the very end, Zelensky did not believe that Putin would start an all-out war to destroy the Ukrainian state. He showed a lack of experience in politics. Yann Breault also notes that Ukraine is still grappling with corruption problems, which have worsened with international financial aid. “I think Zelensky is incapable, in the context, of cleaning up management, governance,” he says.

His challenge for the next year

Cheese fries

For him, the priority is to retain power. “He is more interested in the longevity of his diet than anything else,” sums up Maria Popova. For now, the dynamics of the war are working against him. Splits appear in his entourage. Victories on the ground are limited and the western front remains united behind a more resilient Ukraine than expected. Putin will want to prolong the war and secure the existing front lines. But he must manage the capacity of a very diminished and badly equipped Russian army, in spite of new mobilizations. Domestically, it must maintain an acceptable economic situation for its population, which requires, among other things, a solidification of its network of international alliances which enables it to deal with sanctions.

Zelensky

To hold, while the conflict seems to want to continue. Thanks to Western aid, however, the Ukrainian army is renewing itself with more powerful weapons, which is not the case with the Russians. These technical means could allow Ukraine to make advances, or even to inflict deeper strikes on Russia on its territory.

How far is he willing to go?

Cheese fries

Despite the threats made by Putin, the use of nuclear weapons seems less and less probable, even if it is not completely excluded. “He is an autocrat who cares first and foremost about his survival in power,” recalls Maria Popova. The use of nuclear implies not only that he would lose power, but also that he would not survive physically, because the whole world would be destroyed. I don’t think he has that suicidal thought. For the expert, the question is rather whether Putin will agree to negotiate, period. “His goals for Ukraine are maximalist. It is hard to see where he can compromise. This will depend on its position domestically. He will not sacrifice his diet or his life to achieve his goal. »

Zelensky

Its – huge – goal is to reach a point where Ukraine can be said to have won the war. Where is this point located? That is the question. For some, it would be the reconquest of territories lost for a year. For others, it is the reconquest of Crimea, lost in 2014. If necessary, serious negotiations are to be expected with its Western donors, who fear an escalation that could lead to a third world war. “More than 80% of Ukrainian civil society thinks that victory means freeing every inch of the country,” underlines Maria Popova. Zelensky is a democratic leader, so he must follow public opinion. It will be a challenge for him, because he will have to have all the allies behind him and that is not a given. »


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