A war and its progress

It is now possible to detect bombings using seismometers – devices capable of measuring very small ground movements. As for drone technology, it has made giant strides. For what ? Because the war in Ukraine advanced military technology.

At the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Ben Dando was tasked with monitoring nearby nuclear power plant explosions. “We were mainly monitoring the north and east of Ukraine,” says Dando, who is a geophysicist at NORSAR, a Norwegian seismic research institute. “This is where the main seismometers of our organization, which monitors military nuclear tests, are located. To our great surprise, we detected more than 1200 explosions in nine months, just around Kyiv. This is a much higher number than the reported number of bombings. »

Seismometer technology is so precise that it could be used, in the future, to track conflicts and detect human rights violations. For example, bombings of civilians far from military targets… “It’s very precise, much more than we thought,” says Mr. Dando, who published a study on the subject at the end of August in Nature.

Detect using infrasound

Another challenge: detecting the location of artillery batteries by seismic or acoustic means. “We have been trying to do this since the First World War,” says Mr. Dando. Recently, advances in sensors and artificial intelligence have sparked a boom in research on this subject. »

Quentin Brissaud, also from NORSAR, co-authored the study Nature with Mr. Dando. “For the moment, we can detect the location of an artillery battery with infrasound, but at a maximum distance of 10 km,” he explains. And it depends on favorable winds. But I know that searches are very intense during military maneuvers; I assume a lot of progress is filed top secret. »

Cardboard drones

In April, Australian company Sypaq announced that it would supply Corvo military drones – made of cardboard – to Ukraine. It’s a prime example of the drone revolution seen since the Russian invasion, according to Kelly Grieco, a political scientist at the Stimson Center, a Washington think tank.

Initially, “we thought that drones were going to become more and more sophisticated,” says M.^me Grieco, who published a study on the subject in the spring. “At the start of the conflict, Turkish TB2 drones decimated Russian tank columns. Already, we said to ourselves that perhaps American technology was not necessary. But since then, increasingly less expensive drones have been used, in swarms. And now, in cardboard! »

Russia and Ukraine also use inexpensive Chinese DJI Mavic 3 commercial drones, says M^me Grieco.

Anti-drone technology

Anti-drone technology has also made giant strides. “The Russians quickly figured out how to block communications with drones,” says M^me Grieco. These drones become disoriented and crash. Another option is to protect yourself with metal mesh. Kamikaze drones explode far from the target [car ils se heurtent aux grillages]. »

For several months, the Russians have been using Iranian Shahed-136 kamikaze drones, perfected during the Houthi conflict in Yemen, to strike Ukrainian infrastructure – particularly power plants. “It is possible to neutralize them with anti-aircraft batteries, but these are missiles which often cost more than the Iranian drone,” says Samuel Bendett, political scientist specializing in drones at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) in Washington . “So, we returned to technologies from the Second World War: heavy machine guns mounted on jeeps, which search for drones in the sky with searchlights. »

A dozen companies are developing “drone-hunting drones”. Often, these drones launch nets that enclose the propeller blades of other drones, notes a recent article in ScientificAmerican.

Naval drones

Ukrainian naval drones have also been striking the Russian fleet for almost a year.

“Naval kamikaze drones are even more cost-effective, given that a ship costs much, much more than a tank,” says M^me Grieco. Ukraine has managed to limit the military activities of the Russian fleet, despite the absence of a Ukrainian navy. »

Samuel Bendett emphasizes, however, that the lessons to be learned could be limited for the United States. “The Russian ships were hit while in ports. Security seemed lax. […] I think US ships on the move have much tighter security, which would limit the threat of naval drones. »

Interestingly, an analyst suggested that one of the first successes of Ukrainian naval drones, in October 2022, involved a BRP Sea-Doo engine.

“We are aware of the comments of the British analyst reporting that a naval-type drone probably uses commercial parts from personal watercraft,” said Emilie Proulx, public relations officer at BRP. “No engines for our Sea-Doo watercraft are sold separately. Our products are not designed for military purposes and we have policies and procedures in place to govern the sale of our products. »

Inspire China and Taiwan?

In the event of a possible Chinese landing on Taiwan, could the invasion of Ukraine inspire tactics?

“It is certain that China would use aerial drone swarm tactics to counter Taiwanese coastal defenses,” said Mr.^me Grieco. Naval drones could also play a role, but this time on the Taiwanese defense side. »

Samuel Bendett is more circumspect. “The conflict in Ukraine is on land, while in Taiwan we are talking about a landing and coastal struggles. I’m not sure there are many lessons to be learned from the use of drones for Taiwan. »