On the highway that leads to Taipei, from the small town of Hsinchu on the west coast of Taiwan, the four letters return frantically on the facades of the factories bordering the axis of communication: TSMC.
A few kilometers are enough to become aware of the influence of the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company in the Taiwanese landscape. Just like that of other companies a little more minor, but whose presence on the Asian island could prevent the outbreak of a war between neighboring China and this autonomous territory which has become over the decades a crucial component of the economy. world and new technological realities with its dominant microprocessor industry.
The TSMC alone holds 54% of the world market share in this field, for the construction of so-called smart phones, computers, cars, refrigerators, televisions, medical equipment, surveillance, controls of vital flows, communication infrastructures… Just ahead of the Korean Samsung (16%).
If Taiwan is attacked and this causes an interruption of this trade, the repercussions will be serious throughout the world. The economic impact, but also social, will be much greater than that caused by the war in Ukraine.
Almost all (92%) of the very high quality chips prized by the Apples, IBMs and Qualcomms of this world also come from factories in Taiwan, which according to the Stimson Center, an American think tank on international security, the prosperity and justice, today form nothing less than a “silicon shield” to protect the island, he wrote in a report published in mid-August.
“If Taiwan is attacked and this causes an interruption of this trade, the repercussions will be serious throughout the world, drops the head of Taiwanese diplomacy, Joseph Wu, in an interview with the To have to. The economic impact, but also social, will be much greater than that caused by the war in Ukraine. »
21st century oil
Outside his electronics store in Taipei’s Old Town, Huang Yung Wie waited for customers on a July morning when the humid, oppressive heat left him with little hope of a profitable day. So he took the time to talk.
“War with China? It’s not going to happen, he predicted, as he gasped for the fresh air wafting through the open door of his business. This is in no one’s interest, not even China. Its economy is already not doing very well; by weakening the microprocessor sector, it would only aggravate its problem. »
And for good reason: 70% of the electronic chip needs of the Middle Kingdom are met today by Taiwanese production. That of the TSMC, mainly. Beijing produces only 6% of the microprocessors that Xi Jinping’s regime needs to feed its new, communist, authoritarian and hypertechnological economy, and above all a market for communicating and connected objects that can no longer do without them.
Admittedly, an invasion of the territory could allow it to get its hands on what is now called “oil of the 21ste century” and thus strengthen its control, already oppressive, on consumption on a global scale, but not without the risk of a disruption of this market that several major powers of the world, the United States in the lead, will seek to defend .
War with China? It won’t happen. This is in no one’s interest, not even China. Its economy is already not doing very well; by weakening the microprocessor sector, it would only aggravate its problem.
“No one can control TSMC by force. If you take the path of military force or that of an invasion, you will make the TSMC factories unusable, “warned the company’s big boss, Mark Liu, in an interview granted earlier this month to the CNN network. “Our manufacturing plants are so sophisticated that they depend on a real-time connection to the outside world, to Europe, to Japan, to the United States, for their materials, chemicals, spare parts, engineering software and diagnostics. »
According to him, “war would not make any winner, everyone would lose”.
Increase the “cost”
For the young politician Vincent Chao, former chief of staff of the National Security Council of the Taiwanese government, this “silicon shield” is not to be neglected in the geostrategy which has been deployed for several months under the pressure of a Chinese which seems ready, at all costs, to take control of the young Taiwanese democracy. But he must also be considered with “caution”, he explains from his campaign office in Taipei, where he is running for a post in the local legislature ahead of elections this fall.
“The companies that support this market are private companies that do not necessarily have the defense of Taiwan as their main objective. We cannot rely on them alone. Yes, the international community can make it a commercial objective to defend. But Taiwan today needs more than that. »
According to him, the war in Ukraine, which upset the world order and jeopardized energy and food balances in several countries of the world, finally taught that “a regime of deterrence was always more effective before than after the outbreak of a conflict,” he said.
“Microprocessors can be part of this regime. However, we must also continue to work on building realistic relations between Taiwan and other democracies around the world, so as to continue to increase the risk and cost to China in the event of an invasion or attack. This remains our best bulwark,” he concludes.
With the collaboration of Alisa Chih Yun Chen
This report was funded by
in support of the Journalism Fund
international Transat-The duty.