The Kremlin on Thursday, February 3, urged the United States to “to cease” to aggravate the Russian-Western crisis around Ukraine, the day after the American decision to send 3,000 additional soldiers to Eastern Europe. Julien Théron, teacher in conflicts and international security at Science Po Paris, estimates Thursday, February 3 on franceinfo that the scenario of an attack by Russia in Ukraine is “quite possible”. Only, “you do not hold a territory of 44 million inhabitants which has a very great awareness of its sovereignty with 130,000 men”, he relativizes. According to him, Vladimir Putin is hesitating. Diplomatic exchanges have increased in recent days to give dialogue a chance while the Russian threat does not weaken.
Many Heads of State and Government are visiting Ukraine in the coming days to support Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, but the teacher points to the lack of“homogeneity of Westerners” in their response to Vladimir Putin. Unlike the United Kingdom, Poland, Lithuania and the United States, “relatively spearhead”Germany and “a little bit France slows down by saying that we must favor dialogue”, he explains.
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franceinfo: What are the forces involved?
Julien Theron: First the Ukrainian army, which is seasoned because it has been waging war since 2014 in the Donbass, against what are generally called pro-Russian separatists. An army which, in recent months, has been reinforced with a national guard which is well equipped. And then now also with territorial defense battalions which are civilians who train to defend their country. Russia has generally deployed between 90,000 and 130,000 troops around Ukraine, south to Crimea, east to Donbass, north in two military exercises with Belarus. It also has some in western Ukraine, since it has a military presence in a Moldavian region called Transnistria. And then, as a last curtain, the NATO countries, deploy a certain number of fairly moderate troops, of the order of a few thousand in the NATO countries, like that, if there was a Russian invasion, it would not imply spillovers to NATO countries.
Does a Russian attack seem credible to you?
Yes, it is completely possible. There have already been. Crimea was annexed. Vladimir Putin himself had said that it was indeed Russian soldiers who had intervened in Crimea before the annexation. And then, Russia also supports these Donbass separatists, who also aim from Moscow’s point of view to create a means of pressure on Kiev. So, it is quite possible, indeed, that they intervene. Then there are two questions: One, can they hold the territory? The answer is rather no. They can absolutely penetrate the Ukrainian territory. But it is a territory of 44 million inhabitants. You do not hold a territory of 44 million inhabitants which has a very great awareness of its sovereignty with 130,000 men. It is not possible. And the other question is whether he wants to do it. We are not in the head of Vladimir Putin and I think that there are three elements which made him reflect a little. First, the promise of sanctions which are economic sanctions, but which are significant sanctions. Secondly, the donation to Ukraine of defense materials, such as anti-tank weapons, for example, which would certainly complicate the task of the Russian military. Then, the domestic Russian scene does not particularly want to create a conflict in Ukraine which would last for years and which would get bogged down completely.
Are Western sanctions appropriate?
There is a range of promised pressures that are not things that are being put in place now. Some analysts say it would be better to deploy them now so that the troops withdraw around Ukraine, so that they are no longer a threat. But these are promises of sanctions and from this point of view, it has gained momentum very gradually. For example, the United States accepted, about two weeks ago, that the Baltic States resell the American material which they had bought from Ukraine. This is something that happened after negotiation. It’s very progressive. From this point of view, indeed, the increase in sanctions and the plurality of sanctions are rather effective. On the other hand, where the shoe pinches is that we question the homogeneity of Westerners a lot. The United Kingdom, the Poles, the Lithuanians and a little bit the United States are relatively the spearhead, while Germany especially and a little bit France are holding back a little, saying that we must favor dialogue. Germany is even holding back fairly sincerely, precisely by refusing to allow German arms to be sold to the Ukrainians. She promised them a hospital and 5,000 helmets.