In less than a year, on November 5, 2024, we will have a good idea of the names of the American figures required to mentally prepare to spend time behind bars. This day will be that of the presidential election.
The threat of incarceration primarily concerns Donald Trump. His obvious guilt in a bewildering number of affairs promises him many good years of contemplative life. Note: there is no scenario that would have him don the prison jacket before the election. It is possible that prison sentences will be handed down before then. But appeals, which never take less than a year, will be filed in all cases, and then those decisions can be challenged in the Supreme Court.
The ideal for Trump is obviously to be elected. Within the hour, he will be able to grant himself a presidential pardon for his crimes violating federal laws. This will not exonerate him from crimes that violate state laws, including trying to cheat in the Georgia election (the evidence is strong, including the recording of Trump asking for votes to be “found” for him). ). In this case, the legal rule is that a state cannot force a sitting president to be convicted or incarcerated.
This is a federalist precaution. Without it, a state unhappy with a federal policy could use this leverage to get rid of a politically contrarian president. It’s a shame that we didn’t think of an exception for undermining the electoral process itself. These convictions would not, however, be overturned, only postponed, pending a re-elected Trump leaving the White House. Which would act as a strong motivation for him to never leave her.
There is indeed a tool to block his path: after the civil war, a constitutional amendment was passed to prohibit any public office to someone who had participated in an insurrection. Some are trying to enforce this provision to prevent Trump from accumulating votes in a few states, which would prevent him from gaining a national electoral majority. But it would require a local judge to accept the argument — which has not yet happened — and for his decision to survive appeal within the allotted time. This is, theoretically, not impossible. But it is difficult to see the Supreme Court, predominantly conservative, creating this precedent.
Especially since the question of the impact of a declaration of his ineligibility on the social climate would arise. A backlash from pro-Trump radical groups is not only possible, but certain. This is why clear-headed people say that the only way to really get rid of Trump is to defeat him at the polls. He will obviously declare that the election is rigged and that he won. There will likely be sporadic violence. But the worst will be avoided. Then, a few years later, once his appeals were exhausted, he found himself in a cell.
But Trump, elected next year, then becoming president in office on January 20, 2025, intends to populate the prisons of a significant number of his political enemies himself. Since he believes that the accusations against him are politically motivated, and orchestrated by Joe Biden, which is not based on any evidence, he announces the color: “It is a practice of third world countries: “arrest your opponents ”. And that means I can do it, too. »
Democrats are right to fear his vindictiveness. He announced that he wanted to have Biden personally prosecuted for his son’s escapades, even if there was no evidence to suggest any wrongdoing on the part of the father. It is not impossible that he also targets Hillary Clinton, for whom he has often wished to be imprisoned. He also blames those who orchestrated the investigation into his links with Russia, then the two impeachment attempts.
But he is even more furious at the Republicans who turned their backs on him. Tradition dictates that attorneys general, although appointed by the president, are independent in their decisions. Trump suffered greatly, in his first term, from their refusal to carry out his orders, in particular to declare the 2020 election fraudulent. His first move will therefore be to appoint an unconditional ally to this position, probably Jeffrey Clark, very active in the within the Department of Justice in attempting to overturn the outcome of the 2020 election.
In private conversations, reported by the Washington Post, we hear him wanting revenge on former collaborators who have become critics. His former chief of staff John F. Kelly, his former Attorney General William P. Barr, his former lawyer Ty Cobb and former Army Commander-in-Chief Mark A. Milley are specifically targeted.
An entire operation, called “Project 2025”, is at work to prepare decrees ready to be signed as soon as Trump becomes president. One of them would allow him to invoke the law on insurrection, and thus mobilize the army to intervene against demonstrators. He had wanted to use it during the riots following the assassination of George Floyd, but was prevented from doing so by a cautious entourage.
Since it is certain that his return to power would provoke crowds, as was the case in 2016, he would ensure, after carrying out a purge at the top of the military command, that the troops are deployed at his discretion. Another document provides for expanding the number of senior officials that the president can fire and replace. There are traditionally 4,000 who can be fired. The Project aims to replace 20,000. “It will be a wrecking ball launched against the public administration,” says one of the designers of the measure with delight.
Trump is obviously very bitter with the Republican judges whom he himself appointed, but who then rejected his absurd requests to overturn the election. These nominations came from a right-wing hotbed called The Federalist Society. His Project 2025 now includes candidates more obviously subservient to Trump himself and to legal theories that extend the president’s power in a large number of areas.
The word “revenge” (retribution in English) is one of Trump’s themes in his election speeches. “I am your revenge,” he repeats, each time provoking thunderous applause. Another translation of retribution is “punishment”. This word is more relevant, in my opinion, to what his return would mean for Americans, and the planet. We would all be, more or less, prisoners of Trumpism. We have been warned.
Jean-François Lisée directed the PQ from 2016 to 2018. He has just published Par la bouche de mes crayons published by Somme tout/Le Devoir. [email protected]