The presidential race is on in Nigeria. The current head of state Muhammadu Buhari steps down after two terms, as provided for in the Constitution. And for everything to go as well as possible, four of the main candidates in the running have pledged to avoid any violence during the next five months preceding the election set for February 25, 2023. They have joined a “peace” pact, launched by the National Peace Committee, a private initiative bringing together religious, traditional and opinion leaders.
Main opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP) candidate Atiku Abubakar, Labor Party candidate Peter Obi and New Nigerian Peoples Party candidate Rabiu Kwankwaso all signed the document during the a ceremony in Abuja at the end of September. The candidate of the ruling party, the Congress of Progressives (APC), Bola Ahmed Tinubu, was not present at the ceremony, but his running mate running for vice president signed the pact on his behalf. The most populous country in Africa has already experienced unrest during the election period and the current context is not favorable to a peaceful election.
The initiative will probably not be enough to appease the spirits in a particularly difficult context. Nigeria has been going through a severe economic crisis since the Covid-19 pandemic. It increased with the Russian war in Ukraine. In addition to the economic slump, the country suffers from endemic corruption which it is unable to curb and from generalized insecurity. Elections in Nigeria are often a source of tension with embezzlement, vote buying or even voter intimidation. The campaign will last five long months. This is more than in 2018, when it lasted three months, and it risks aggravating divisions in a country extremely polarized between a Muslim north and a Christian south.
One of the central topics of the 2023 presidential election is a Nigerian specificity: “zoning”. According to this tacit agreement, the presidency must alternate every two terms between a candidate from the North, mainly Muslim, and a candidate from the South, mainly Christian. Objective : maintain balance.
However, the main opposition party, the PDP, and the APC (in power) ignored this principle by designating both Muslim candidates after two terms of President Buhari. The opposition chose Atiku Abubakar, from the north, and the ruling party chose a Muslim from the south, Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
The candidates of the main political parties are both in their seventies, extremely wealthy and controversial. They will have to convince the voters of a country where 60% of the population is under 25, and where exasperation is growing with regard to the old political class accused of corruption and bad governance.
Another opposition candidate has emerged in recent months. It is Peter Obi, 61, from the Labor Party. He is a former governor who is very popular with young people and who enjoys significant support on social networks. Still it is necessary that it can mobilize the young voters who often shun the polls.
In Nigeria, turnout is generally low. It was only 33% during the 2019 presidential election. Politics is also largely conditioned by the support and the millions of dollars that candidates can invest in a campaign. A total of 18 candidates, including one woman, are running for the 2023 ballot.