Afghanistan under the Taliban
On August 15, Kabul fell into the hands of the Taliban, who made a breakthrough in Afghanistan following the withdrawal of US and NATO troops.
Since then, the Islamist regime has been accused of violence and summary executions by NGOs such as Amnesty International. Women’s freedoms have also been curtailed despite initial statements by the Taliban, who promised that their regime would be less strict than during their first reign, between 1996 and 2001. The country is sinking further into misery. The Taliban face several challenges for 2022, underlines Sami Aoun, professor at the University of Sherbrooke and director of the Observatory on the Middle East and North Africa (OMAN).
“There have been gains over the past 20 years, which are increasingly squandered. Women’s rights, freedom of the press, the school network for girls. There is a return to a very strict regime, ”he said.
Another challenge for the Taliban will be to control the militants of the Islamic State armed group in Khorassan, a regional branch of Daesh which is increasing the attacks.
The world after Angela Merkel
Chancellor of Germany since 2005, Angela Merkel, a legendary figure on the international scene, bowed out at 67, after 16 years of service.
“She had this very measured, very balanced way of approaching things, which has sometimes been criticized”, underlines Frédéric Mérand, scientific director of the Center for International Studies and Research (CÉRIUM). His successor, Olaf Scholz, will have big shoes to put on, but he has that “statesman” side which the Germans like, that is to say the stature of a politician capable of standing up to Russia or in the USA.
Angela Merkel will also leave a legacy in German society. “The new government of Olaf Scholz is a continuation”, mentions Frédéric Mérand, especially in the style, that is to say the search for consensus, the respect of the adversaries and the will to make progress the things without rush. The new chancellor, however, is seen as more left-wing and environmentalist. “The biggest changes should happen on environmental issues,” thinks
the political scientist.
Climbing in Taiwan
Taiwan is at the heart of a conflict between China and the United States, which are in an escalation that remains for the moment verbal. Military tensions between China and the democratic island state are at their highest in four decades, the Taiwanese defense ministry warned in October.
Chinese military aviation has made a record number of incursions into Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) in recent months. In his New Year’s speech, Chinese President Xi Jinping said that “the complete reunification of our homeland is an aspiration shared by the people” of China and Taiwan. Beijing has been working for several years to isolate the country on the international scene, and Nicaragua recently cut its diplomatic relations with the country, which reduced to 14 the number of countries which recognize its sovereignty.
The United States made it clear this fall that the country intends to defend Taiwan militarily if the situation calls for it. A military clash is unlikely for the moment, according to experts. “Xi Jinping put some water in his wine and said he would be patient. He understands that the Americans are there and that they are increasing their commitment, ”says Jean-Pierre Cabestan, professor of political science at the Baptist University of Hong Kong.
Abortion at risk in the United States
The right to abortion in the United States, marked out by two decisions, including the well-known “Roe v. Wade ”, is in the crosshairs of the Supreme Court. It must decide by next June on a case opposing Mississippi, which passed a law in 2018 banning most abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy, at the only abortion clinic in this conservative southern state.
“It is an expected decision, and which could have very serious consequences for reproductive rights”, says Andréanne Bissonnette, researcher in residence at the Observatory of geopolitics and at the Observatory on the United States.
Currently, states cannot ban abortion until the fetus is viable, around 22 to 24 weeks gestation. The judges could thus decide to reduce this duration. But Mississippi asks the Court to go further and leave the right to the states to legislate as they see fit on the subject. Should this scenario materialize, it could lead to a restriction or prohibition of the right to abortion in half of the states.
A hearing last December sent a signal in this direction. Now dominated by the conservatives (six judges against three), the Court seemed to lean in favor of a revision of this law.
Vaccination around the world
As 2022 begins, several countries are accelerating the administration of a third dose of COVID-19 vaccine to deal with the Omicron variant, but voices are being raised against the vaccine inequity that persists between countries.
According to the online scientific publication Our World in Data, 58.6% of the world’s population had received at least one dose of the vaccine in early January, but this was the case for only 8.5% of those living in a country with low income.
The African continent is particularly lagging behind, but the arrival of doses has accelerated in recent weeks: the number has increased from 2.5 million to 20 million per week on average, but this will not make up for the delay. accumulated. While countries like Morocco, Tunisia, Rwanda, South Africa and Egypt are doing well, others like the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Nigeria have vaccinated a tiny fraction of their population.
Questions of production, logistics to administer the doses, vaccine hesitation and misinformation are involved, according to experts.
The Economist Intelligence Unit published a study which indicates that the majority of developing countries will not have succeeded in immunizing 60 to 70% of their population before 2023, at best.
Ukrainian border
All eyes have been on Ukraine for several weeks, where Russia has massed tens of thousands of troops along the border, raising fears of an invasion of Kiev and its Western allies.
A scenario which is however “difficult to imagine”, thinks Dominique Arel, holder of the Chair in Ukrainian studies at the University of Ottawa. “You have to take it seriously,” he said. But what Russia is trying to make us believe is that there will be war, and one of the objectives is to crack the Ukrainians and their allies. To sit down and find compromises. “
Donbass, a region in eastern Ukraine, has been at the center of a conflict since 2014 between pro-Russian separatists and Ukraine, after Moscow’s annexation of the Crimean peninsula.
But, over the past seven years, Ukraine has developed a better strike force. “The Russian army is four to six times more powerful than the Ukrainian army, but there would be considerable losses on the Russian side in the event of an invasion. Because there is a real army on the Ukrainian side, ”says Dominique Arel.
Ukraine talks will take place January 9-10 in Geneva between the United States and Russia.