The OECD is counting on an improvement in global growth, while pointing out divergences between the United States marked by a recovery and the euro zone which remains behind, in its economic forecasts updated on Thursday.
“Divergences between economies are likely to persist in the short term,” estimated the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), which forecasts growth of 3.1% worldwide this year compared to 2.9% expected during its previous forecasts in February, and 3.2% next year (+0.2 points).
According to the Paris-based economic institution, “the United States and a number of large emerging markets continue to show strong growth, unlike European economies”, faced with more sluggish activity.
The United States presented impressive economic health last year with 2.5% growth thanks to solid consumption, even if it slowed more than expected in the first quarter.
American growth is still forecast at 2.6% this year by the OECD, and at 2.7% by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The strength of economic activity is such that the much-anticipated cut in interest rates from the American Central Bank (Fed) this year could come later than expected, in a country where inflation has started to rise again since the beginning of the year.
Also dynamic, India is expected to post 6.6% growth this year, an increase of 0.4 points compared to the OECD’s February forecast, and Brazil 1.9%, an increase of 0 forecast. .1 point.
Germany 0.2% and France 0.7%
On the other hand, the euro zone has been mired in stagnation for a year and a half and only just emerged from recession in the first quarter.
The European Central Bank (ECB) should begin its cycle of interest rate cuts in June, faced with sluggish growth which according to the OECD should be 0.7% this year compared to 0.6% retained in previous forecasts. in February, before rebounding to 1.5% in 2025, thanks to the recovery in domestic demand.
Heavyweight in the region, Germany’s economic activity will only grow by 0.2% this year, says the OECD, which in February was still forecasting 0.3%. Conversely, France saw its forecast slightly raised to 0.7% compared to 0.6% announced in February.
The divergences between the two most economically powerful regions in the world are mainly explained by the energy shock caused by the war in Ukraine, the differences in behavior regarding savings, and the budgetary policy, less expansive in Europe, underlined in an interview with Agence France-Presse with IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas at the end of 2023.
This divergence is quite infrequent and could lead to a clear strengthening of the dollar, which in recent weeks has reached five-month highs against the euro, and to a widening of the differences in living standards between the two continents.
The OECD, however, is optimistic: economic divergences will “fade as the recovery in Europe strengthens and growth slows in the United States, India and several other emerging economies”.