The year 2022 promises to be eventful and several important elections will be held around the world. Here are six that grab our attention.
France
Towards an eventful presidential election
Will Emmanuel Macron, followed by the right, manage to keep the presidency of the Republic? The bets are open, as the candidates scramble for the first round of the French presidential election which will take place next April.
The arrival in the race at the beginning of December of Valérie Pécresse, of the Republicans party, and of a more moderate right wing upsets the plans of the outgoing president, who wanted to embody a progressive and moderate candidacy against Marine Le Pen and the provocative columnist of right Éric Zemmour. “We cannot exclude that, in a context like this, Macron twists his profile,” thinks Frédéric Mérand, scientific director of the Center for International Studies and Research (CÉRIUM).
The candidates of the left, which is disorganized, fail to impose themselves. “It’s a sad sight,” drops Mr. Mérand. Will the probable entry on the scene of the former Minister of Justice, Christiane Taubira, unify the left? The political scientist doubts it and it is especially the arrival of Valérie Pécresse which will change the situation in this election, according to him.
Regarding the issues, he notes that the presidential cleavage is for the moment between progressivism and nationalism, more than about the pandemic or the issues worn by the yellow vests.
United States
Joe Biden will he lose feathers?
Two years after Joe Biden’s election as President of the United States, all 435 seats in the House of Representatives as well as one-third of the seats in the Senate will be up for grabs next November. Republicans may well make a breakthrough. So far, Democrats have a slim lead in the House of Representatives, while their opponents have a majority in the Senate.
Frédérick Gagnon, holder of the Raoul-Dandurand Chair at UQAM, mentions that historically, the party of the current president often loses its feathers during mid-term elections, “especially when the president is not very popular, and this is the case with Joe Biden, he said. He is one of the less popular contemporary presidents at this time ”.
It is especially the voters “angry”, and who want to express it, who tend to participate in the midterm elections, which is not good news for the Democrats. Among the issues that could arise, the political scientist notes inflation, if it is still high in 2022, immigration, “waste of public funds” and the pandemic. However, a lot of things can change between now and next November.
Lebanon
“Crucial elections” in a country in crisis
Lebanon has been sinking for two years into a political crisis and the worst economic crisis in its history, with unprecedented inflation that has led to a significant decline in purchasing power and which has thrown millions of people into poverty.
It is in this gloomy context that legislative elections will likely be held next March. They could however be delayed because of President Michel Aoun, a Christian, who is in conflict with the Shiite fringe of the parliament. A total of 128 seats will be at stake in the Chamber of Deputies. In principle, the presidential election will take place in September or October, adds Sami Aoun, professor at the University of Sherbrooke.
“These are crucial elections. There is a doubt which hangs over the political future of the mode, which always stumbles on its own problems ”, explains Mr. Aoun. He adds that Lebanon is in an existential crisis. “Will Lebanon remain within a confessionalist system, or will it move towards a more secular regime and open to liberal democracy? ” he asks. But the country is fragmented and it is difficult to get consensus around a common vision.
Brazil
The end for Bolsonaro?
A duel is emerging between the former president of Brazil, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, and the disputed Jair Bolsonaro in view of the presidential election in Brazil to be held in October 2022. For the moment, the polls give Lula the favorite from the first round and the gap widens between the
two politicians.
The current president, a right-wing populist elected in 2018, has seen his popularity decline because of his handling of the pandemic, which has been widely criticized and which has sparked public discontent. Jean-François Mayer, professor of political science at Concordia University, explains that there has been a decline in support for Bolsonaro from the middle and upper classes, coupled with the overturning of Lula’s conviction, which has restored his political rights.
“Lula is in a very good position to win the ballot”, underlines the expert, adding that nothing is however set in stone, because the attention is directed only towards the two candidates. Former anti-corruption judge and former Brazilian justice minister Sergio Moro, who convicted Lula in 2017 of corruption, has joined the centrist Podemos party and could muddy the waters.
Philippines
A hectic presidential election
The presidential election in May in the Philippines to replace the populist Rodrigo Duterte is “like a live reality show, with melodramas”, describes Dominique Caouette, professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Montreal.
The president’s daughter, Sara Duterte, has held the country in suspense over whether or not she will run to succeed her father. But after several negotiations, she finally presented herself as vice-president. In a twist, she allied herself with Ferdinand Marcos Jr, says “Bongbong”, son of the former dictator of the same name, and whose objective is to rehabilitate his family, which has a poor record.
“They are not in the same political parties, but people often change parties according to their preference. What is important are the big clans, ”says Dominique Caouette, adding that the situation is changing rapidly and that this election is being followed“ like a basketball game ”. The expert also notes an authoritarian backlash in neighboring countries.
This presidential election is closely followed by China and the United States, Rodrigo Duterte having moved closer to China during the six years of his presidency.
Hong Kong
China’s noose tightens
After legislative elections in December in Hong Kong with a historically low turnout and whose candidates were to be “patriots” loyal to China, a small electoral committee will choose in 2022 a chief executive from among candidates approved by Beijing . Current Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam has served since 2017.
China’s grip has tightened over the former British colony. After mass protests in 2019 over a controversial bill, Beijing responded by imposing a national security law the following year, which resulted in dozens of arrests and the shutdown of independent media outlets. Pro-democracy politicians have also resigned, and some have gone into exile.
Carrie Lam does not shine with her popularity, with a rate around 36% according to recent independent polls. “We think she will run again, it will depend on what Beijing prefers. But for the moment, we do not really see other candidates, “said Jean-Pierre Cabestan, professor of political science at the Baptist University of Hong Kong. Will this reactivate protests? The price to pay is probably too high for dissidents because of the new law, answers the expert.