why the situation on the front is described as “extremely difficult” by Volodymyr Zelensky

The Ukrainian president expressed concern on Monday, in his daily message, about Russian movements on several points of the front line, against a backdrop of uncertainty about American military aid.

The short sentence, pronounced by Volodymyr Zelensky himself, comes just a few hours after the Ukrainian withdrawal on Saturday from the town of Avdiïvka, following several months of very intense fighting. “The situation is extremely difficult at several points on the front line, where Russian troops have concentrated maximum reserves,” insisted the Ukrainian president on Monday February 19 in his daily message.

Russian forces, according to Volodymyr Zelensky, “take advantage of the delay in aid” Western countries to Ukraine, at a time when the Republican majority in the House of Representatives in the United States continues to block a crucial envelope of 60 billion dollars in military assistance.

Russian “offensive operations” in several locations

These delays “likely help Russia launch opportunistic offensive operations along several sectors of the front line”, note the American analysis center Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which follows the evolution of the conflict day after day. The objective for Moscow is to“exert pressure on Ukrainian forces on several axes”, in a context where the kyiv army lacks equipment and in particular ammunition. “Since the end of the year, we have seen an acceleration of bombings, on a larger scale, certainly to exhaust Ukrainian air defense munitions,” notes Carole Grimaud, specialist in Russian geopolitics and professor at Paul-Valéry University in Montpellier.

Currently, the ISW observes at least three Russian offensive movements in Ukraine: around Avdiivka, near the border between the Kharkiv and Luhansk regions, and further south towards Robotyne, in the Zaporizhia region. Moscow’s forces are taking advantage of the uncertainty over military aid to Ukraine, but also of the climate before the “rasputitsa” period, the time of bad roads. Indeed, with the arrival of spring, milder temperatures and thaw make the land muddy, which complicates the movement of military vehicles.

In the Avdiivka region, for example, dozens of Russian attacks took place the day after the Ukrainian withdrawal, according to General Oleksandr Tarnavsky, commander of the sector. “We are still seeing fighting in villages where the Ukrainians have built defense lines, with no advance or retreat from one side or the other,” notes Ulrich Bounat, geopolitical analyst and author of Hybrid war in Ukraine, what prospects? (editions du Cygne). Russian success in this town in the Donetsk region shows Moscow’s desire to exhaust Ukrainian capabilities, without necessarily obtaining strategic territorial gain, in the opinion of the ISW.

“Russian forces managed to draw Ukrainian forces toward Avdiivka and away from other areas of the front, forcing the Ukrainians to use their already limited reserves of critical equipment, but they did so without achieving major operational gains. “

The Institute for the Study of War analysis center

Fighting also intensified in the Zaporizhia region, around the village of Robotyne recaptured by the Ukrainians in August. The ISW notes that Russian troops have managed to retake an area south of the town and are approaching the west of the village. “The situation is changing, the enemy is inflicting heavy fire (…) The enemy has carried out 10 unsuccessful attempts against the positions of the defense forces”, alerted Dmytro Lykhovy, spokesperson for the Ukrainian military in this area. According to him, Russian troops are acting with “small groups” aided by armored vehicles and an air force which “actively operates”. “It’s a pretty strong offensive, there is a desire to break through, notes Ulrich Bounat. Robotyne is also the place where Ukrainians are closest to Tokmak and Melitopol, towns near the Sea of ​​Azov. This is also why the Russians are trying to push them back.”

Finally, between the Kharkiv and Luhansk regions in the east, the ISW records Russian advances west of Kreminna, as well as continued positional fighting northeast of Koupiansk, towards Synkivka. “It’s a strategic village that the Russians have been trying to retake for several weeks”, specifies Ulrich Bounat. As for Kupiansk, “this is a priority objective for the Russians to take up again. They are trying to place as many units, without obtaining real results for the moment”.

A shortage of equipment and personnel

These movements risk weakening the Ukrainian forces, against a backdrop of lack of equipment along the front line. In terms of ammunition, “the shortage is increasing day by day”, recently alerted Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov in a letter to the head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell. In this letter consulted by the Financial Timesthe minister explains that it is necessary to “minimum” 6,000 artillery shells per day. But at this stage, Ukrainian forces can only shoot 2,000 each day, he points out. The Russian troops facing them have a daily capacity of 10,000 artillery shells.

If approved, the $60 billion in U.S. aid is expected to allow Ukraine to receive 1.3 million munitions this year, according to researcher Jack Watling with Time. Without this, kyiv risks experiencing several more months of shortage. European production capacities are increasing, but the promise to deliver one million munitions to Ukraine by March has only been partially kept. Only half will be delivered on timeaccording to Josep Borrell. “The Ukrainians are trying to compensate with drones, but that partly compensates,” adds Ulrich Bounat. For the researcher, the kyiv army notably need for fighter planes or equipment “which allow you to strike more deeply”, like Scalp or ATACMS missiles. Sending anti-aircraft weapons is also crucial: kyiv could run out of anti-aircraft missiles as early as March, according to the New York Times.

Russia has a clear advantage on this point. According to Jack Watling, Moscow has nearly 3 million munitions in stock, and North Korea has committed to delivering more than a million more. Not to mention Russian production capacities, reinforced by a war economy. “A war machine has been put in place. Factory output is deliberately pushed to the maximum” in Russia, confirms Carole Grimaud.

“They have superiority in terms of the quantity of weapons, ammunition, fighter planes… And in numbers. Ukraine knows it: it is not the number of deaths on the Russian side that will stop the war. “

Carole Grimaud, specialist in Russian geopolitics

at franceinfo

In Ukraine, on the contrary, the question of military personnel is increasingly being raised. In December, Volodymyr Zelensky announced that military officials had “proposed to mobilize 450,000 to 500,000 additional people” after two years of fighting. The head of state calls for a “efficient rotation system” troops at the front, exhausted by a bogged-down conflict. A bill aimed at speeding up enlistment is under study, not without controversy. For example, he plans to raise the age of mobilization to 25, compared to 27 today. “The Ukrainian forces do not use the same means as the Russian side, notes Carole Grimaud. We don’t send prisoners to the front, for example. The directives of the Ukrainian army are to preserve the lives of the fighters.”

The withdrawal from Avdiïvka on Saturday was decided “to save as many lives as possible”, defended Volodymyr Zelensky. While reiterating its call for Western military aid, to better resist Russian forces.