The airstrikes carried out by Pakistan and Iran and targeting rebel groups taking refuge in each other’s territory mark a sudden worsening of friction between the two neighboring countries, at a time when the region is already under high tension, notes analysts.
“This kind of attack has never been carried out before by either side,” Nausheen Wasi, professor of international relations at the University of Karachi, told Agence France-Presse. “Escalation must be avoided. »
Nuclear-armed Pakistan and its western neighbor have both suffered decades of insurgencies along their 1,000-kilometre shared border.
Tehran announced that it had struck the “terrorist group” Jaish al-Adl (Army of Justice in Arabic) on Pakistani soil on Tuesday evening. Deeming this attack “totally unacceptable”, Pakistan recalled its ambassador to Iran and banned the Iranian ambassador.
In response, Pakistan also targeted Pakistani separatists of Baloch ethnicity in Iranian territory on Thursday morning.
The Iranian attack caused the death of two children, according to Islamabad. At least nine people, including four children and three women, were killed by Pakistani strikes, according to Iranian state media.
The two countries have accused each other of an inability to control armed groups operating from each other’s territory.
These attacks come as the Middle East is rocked by several crises, a situation that has prevailed since Israel declared war in the Gaza Strip on the Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas in response to its bloody October 7 attack on the country.
“Red lines”
Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels have attacked commercial ships in the Red Sea, and Israeli forces exchange daily fire with the pro-Iranian Lebanese Islamist movement Hezbollah on the Israel-Lebanon border.
Iran also launched missile attacks on Tuesday at what it called “spy” headquarters and “terrorist” targets in Syria and autonomous Iraqi Kurdistan.
Iran expects tensions with Israel to “increase” as the war in Gaza drags on, says Sanam Vakil of the British think tank Chatham House. “He places these red lines to directly show Israel what it will or will not respond to,” she adds.
“Iran wants to strengthen its position, approves Mme Wasi. The attacks are a warning to the international community rather than to Pakistan. »
The Pakistani response has accentuated fears of a spiral. But “the consequence of the new situation is that the two countries are [maintenant] apparently and symbolically cleared,” says Antoine Levesque, of the International Institute for Strategic Studies. “The risks of further escalation are minimal, and perhaps diminishing over time,” he predicts.
According to Mme Vakil, the Pakistani response “seems quite moderate” and copies the method of Tehran, which has stressed only targeting Iranian groups operating from abroad.
Elections in Pakistan
Thursday’s victims are believed to be Pakistani nationals, the Iranian Fars agency said without citing a source.
“There is really room for de-escalation here,” underlines M.me Vakil. They could find a solution that would allow [à chacun] to save face. »
Pakistan is preparing to hold a general election on February 8, and its all-powerful military has already been accused of seeking to influence the outcome.
Former Prime Minister Imran Khan, the country’s most popular politician, is currently in detention and has been declared ineligible for five years after attacking the military.
Another former prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, who led the country three times, is considered the favorite in the poll, with analysts saying he enjoys the support of the military.
Pakistan is also grappling with a sharp increase in attacks on the Afghan border and a deterioration in its relations with the Taliban authorities in Kabul.
“Don’t overlook the political boost the military could get from this retaliation against Iran,” warned Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center in Washington.
“The army’s crackdown on Imran Khan and his party has fueled public anger against it. This retaliatory strike could have a rallying effect around the flag, even if only momentarily,” he wrote on X.