The future of democracy could emerge as a central theme of the 2024 United States presidential election in the event of a rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, according to observers of American politics.
Mr. Trump remains the favorite to be the Republican Party’s presidential candidate. He suggested recently that he might abuse his powers once he returns to the White House to achieve certain goals.
Many are alarmed by the potential authoritarian excesses of the 77-year-old man if he is re-elected, starting with the current American president. Mr. Biden, who wishes to run for a second term under the Democratic banner, affirmed that democracy will be “more at risk in 2024”. According to him, the ex-president and his allies seek to “destroy” democratic institutions.
McGill University history professor Jason Opal believes that next November’s election promises to be “crucial” for the current constitutional order of the United States. “There is someone who says that he does not respect the Constitution, that he is going to chase away those who criticize him or is going to attack them. […] If he comes to power, [Trump] will certainly replace a very large number of federal government employees with his supporters. I have the impression that certain rights and freedoms are at stake,” says Mr. Opal, who specializes in American constitutionalism.
“His supporters are much more consistent. They have a plan to really shake up the government and the federal state and target their enemies. “It’s unprecedented in American history to have such a person with such influence in this position,” he adds.
If the word “historic” has often been used to describe an American presidential election, the qualifier risks also applying to the next race, says Frédérick Gagnon, holder of the Raoul-Dandurand Chair in strategic and diplomatic studies. “Because if Trump returns to power, we know a little bit about what to expect going forward. We see his statements at the moment, we see his projects, we see who he wants to appoint around him as advisors,” says the director of the Observatory on the United States at the University of Quebec in Montreal (UQAM).
The specter of a re-election of Donald Trump frightens many and could “be very mobilizing to the advantage of Biden,” believes Mr. Gagnon.
“When we conducted field surveys in the United States during the 2022 mid-term elections, there were many Democratic voters who told us, deep down, that they were afraid for the future of democracy. American,” relates the researcher.
Many Democrats dissatisfied with 46e President of the country could therefore end up lining up behind him in order to block the path of Mr. Trump, continues Mr. Gagnon.
Already, Joe Biden has begun to refocus his message on the defense of democracy, while his speeches on his economic record seem to arouse little enthusiasm among the population, notes the UQAM researcher.
Beyond democracy, the economy, inflation and the right to abortion are also likely to be essential themes of the presidential campaign.
Mr. Opal also cites “Obamacare”, the health insurance program signed under the presidency of Barack Obama in 2010. Mr. Trump recently declared that he wanted to replace this program, which he tried to invalidate when he was at the head of the United States.
“Democrats are going to mention this all the time. They will say: ‘We, the Democrats, we will protect, we will expand, we will further encourage Obamacare, while Trump will dismantle it,'” says Mr. Opal, who specifies that this policy obtains strong support from the among the population, even among Republicans.
Fears of violence
The possibility of seeing acts of violence emerge during and after the presidential campaign worries the two observers of American politics. “Trump never seeks to unify Americans, to ease tensions. He likes to intensify divisions, arouse anger and spread rumors or conspiracies,” says Mr. Opal.
The episode of the assault on the Capitol on January 6, 2021 leaves a bad omen if the race were to end with results as close as four years ago, underlines Mr. Gagnon for his part.
“If it comes down to, for example, a few tens of thousands of votes in one state of the country, we can imagine the kind of crisis. And then, maybe we will go weeks without knowing who the president is. There could be violent clashes, he mentions. It is a country that remains fragile. »
And Canada has every interest in keeping an eye on the situation in its southern neighbors, adds Mr. Gagnon.
“Because if things go wrong in the United States, over the next few years after the election, it could have effects on us. The vast majority of our international exports go to the United States. Our economy depends a lot on what happens in the United States,” he explains.
On the way to the primaries
The coming months will confirm whether Americans will indeed witness a rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. The Democratic and Republican primaries – the process of choosing their candidate for the White House from each camp – will take place during 2024.
Among the Republicans, Mr. Trump obtains a large share of support and dominates his rivals, according to various polls.
However, in the coming weeks and months we will have to monitor the effects of the recent decision of the Colorado Supreme Court, which declared Mr. Trump ineligible for the 2024 presidential election due to his role in the assault on the Capitol. Maine’s secretary of state made a similar decision Thursday, but it will likely be up to the U.S. Supreme Court to decide the case.
The trials and 91 offenses he faces have done little harm to Mr. Trump so far. On the contrary, the legal proceedings allowed him to fuel the support of his supporters by claiming to be the victim of a “witch hunt” and to occupy media space, analyzes Mr. Gagnon.
However, a survey of New York Times made public last November suggests a drop in voting intentions if Mr. Trump were convicted of a crime; he would lose six points on average in six key states in the presidential election, indicates the UQAM researcher.
In the Democratic ranks, Mr. Biden does not seem threatened so far either. Democratic bigwigs considered serious candidates to succeed the president have decided to remain loyal to him.
Mr. Opal, however, believes that doubt persists as to the possibility that the current president will withdraw from the race because of his age, 81, and his state of health.
At least, the “question arises”, according to him, in view of a recent declaration. Mr. Biden said he would have been less certain about running again if Mr. Trump had not been a candidate.
This may have been a response to Democrats who think he should step down and to polls showing low satisfaction with his job.
“What Biden says a lot is that in fact, he was the candidate who beat Trump in 2020. And, according to him, he still remains the best candidate to beat him,” says Mr. Gagnon.