Vladimir Putin’s annual speech is “extremely worrying”, according to geopolitician Cyrille Bret

“The Russian president clearly recalled that for him, eastern Ukraine was Russian.”

During his annual press conference organized in Moscow on Thursday December 14, Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered a message on his foreign policy “extremely worrying”, analysis on franceinfo by geopolitician Cyrille Bret.

franceinfo: The message delivered by the Russian president, candidate for re-election in March 2024, is quite clear : “I’m the boss in Russia, I have plenty of time, I’m going to get re-elected”?

Cyrille Bret: Exactly, the domestic political message is: ‘I’m in charge for a long time’. The external political message has been extremely worrying. The Russian president clearly recalled that for him, eastern Ukraine was Russian and that Odessa, which is still in sovereign Ukrainian territory, was a Russian city and that it did not suffer from disputes. So this gives a framework over the long term in which the Russian president fits. On the one hand, he will not give up his illegal annexations in the east of the country and on the other hand, he will concentrate his efforts on Odessa to cut off all maritime frontage from Ukraine and make it a landlocked state, or even a state rump.

Moreover, Vladimir Putin said that next March, we would vote in the eastern territories of Ukraine.

This is absolutely correct and the message of normalization is getting across: the Yevgeny Prigozhin event did not take place, the military setback did not take place, the sanctions have no impact. The new Russian citizens who are the Ukrainians illegally attached to Russia are being asked to vote.

‘It’s a show of strength, at least in the speeches and in the general attitude.’

Cyrille Bret, geopolitician

at franceinfo

There is also the conflict in the Middle East which makes Vladimir Putin’s speech simpler?

Yes, since October 7, the fighting in Ukraine has taken a back seat to the diplomatic efforts of Westerners who were previously obsessed with the Ukrainian question. By a principle of communicating vessels, all efforts that Westerners do not deploy in Ukraine are deployed towards Israel and vice versa.

And then we may need Russia in the Middle East too…

Exactly. Look at the statements made by the Russian president. He proposes deploying a field hospital in Gaza, and is even close to proposing mediation between these two great allies in the region, Egypt and Israel. But that’s what we’re used to. It’s a posture: Russia offers itself as a mediator even though it is part of the crisis.

Is this second winter for Ukraine a moment of truth?

For Ukraine, in any case, it is a weak moment. A moment which follows a series of difficulties with delays in European support, a relative failure of this summer’s counter-offensive. On the Russian side, it is a less weak or almost strong time, with the Russian president’s ability to act as if everything was going well in his country.