Despite their second strong mandate, the CAQ and François Legault are already in free fall. The Léger survey/The newspaper shows this unequivocally. For the first time in 10 years, at 31% of voting intentions, the Parti Québécois climbs to first place while the CAQ slips to 25%.
In a year and a half since the 2022 elections, the CAQ has lost 16 points. The PQ won 16. For the government, the awakening is painful. However, there was no shortage of clues.
Since the spring, the support lost by the CAQ has all returned to the PQ fold. Normal. These are two perfectly communicating electoral vessels.
Bad news never comes alone, 63% of voters also say they are dissatisfied with the government. Since the CAQ’s first victory in 2018, this is unheard of.
Another dark red light: only 19% of voters choose François Legault as best prime minister, while 28% prefer his PQ opponent, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon.
A steep slope to climb
The observation is inevitable. A real disenchantment has set in between a growing part of the CAQ electorate and a prime minister whose popularity has nevertheless shattered all records since 2018.
The initially emotional bond between Mr. Legault and French speakers, even almost symbiotic, seems to have evaporated as quickly as it was formed. It must be said that in politics, the need to seduce voters without a clear vision to accompany it often ends up boomeranging.
The fall is such that it may be said that he has three years left to regain control of the situation – which remains very feasible – but for the moment at least, the slope to climb takes on the appearance of Everest.
Among French speakers, the CAQ actually slips to 31%. The PQ climbs to 37%. The reversal is spectacular, but it owes nothing to chance.
His broken promise on the third link hurt Mr. Legault. The breakdown of trust began at that moment. Through ill-advised decisions, a general impression of improvisation and disconnection also emerged.
The survey, however, confirms that the lamentable state of public services is what weighs down the CAQ the most. To the question “Why do you say you are dissatisfied with the Quebec government led by François Legault”, the dominant reason does not lie.
For 44%, of whom 49% are women, the answer is clear: because it “failed to improve the health or education system”. The first key to disenchantment is there.
Achilles’ heel
Then come the 30% increase in MP salaries, the subsidy to the Kings, etc. It’s not rocket science. Quebecers are fed up with their dilapidated public services.
They no longer appreciate seeing their government navigate without precise direction or understand nothing about the housing crisis or the distress of families forced to queue in front of food banks.
The second key to disenchantment is called PSPP. The PQ leader has thus far succeeded in establishing himself as a credible alternative to the CAQ. The fact that their electorates are communicating vessels does the rest.
As the CAQ lost its footing, the refreshing tone and assumed convictions of PSPP also hit the mark. Let’s call it the contrast effect. The PQ should however note this.
Among French speakers, 41% say they would be less encouraged to vote for the PQ if it promises to hold a referendum in its first mandate. Unsurprisingly, it is the same Achilles heel of the PQ since the departure of Jacques Parizeau.
By sweeping their option under the rug, his successors ended up communicating their own fear of a referendum. In three years, who knows what will happen.
The fact remains that the 2026 elections are likely to come down to the management of public services by the CAQ.
In view of the next campaign, PSPP and its team would be wise to start working seriously on concrete ways to repair the three most damaged pillars of the Quebec state: health, social services and education.