The PQ and the intoxicating smell of power (2)

The more the PQ climbs in the pollsthe more his commitment to holding a referendum in a first term will be discussed.

The federalist speech is written in advance. No need for the PQ to worry about it.

Among the nationalists, there will be some who suggest taking it easy.

They will say that the referendum will scare off voters.

Above all, they will say that a third defeat would be the final nail in the coffin.

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Franchise

These arguments are much less convincing than in the past for five reasons.

First, the evidence is absolutely clear that governing does not increase support for sovereignty.

It’s exactly the opposite. Governance takes up all your energy and your errors have negative repercussions on the sovereignty project.

We are no longer in the 1970s, when sovereignists, having never governed, could believe in the virtues of provincial power to prepare for the big night.

Secondly, when you take power with an ambiguous mandate on whether or not to hold the referendum, every gesture made once in government is seen as a sneaky trick to promote your option, and this distrust contaminates everything.

Third, we are no longer in a two-party system as in the past.

When there were only two major parties – the PLQ and the PQ – and small marginal parties, if the PQ was the opposition party, it received many votes from those dissatisfied with the liberal government, even if these voters did not were not sovereignists.

It is now a five-way game.

The PQ can no longer, as in the past, rely on the alternation which would automatically bring it back to power once people are tired of the government in place.

These have four options now.

The PQ must therefore give a strong and distinctive reason to vote for it to a large contingent of voters.

With this in mind, who should it target first?

Clearly, the sovereignists of the left, right and center are the largest bloc of French-speaking voters with a strong political conviction in common.

The PQ should no longer waste time trying to seduce non-French speakers. We tried in the past. Total failure.

Let’s assume that there are around 35% sovereignists. These are the people the PQ must target, whom it must bring back to the fold.

Their best chance of achieving this is to bet everything on what turns them on.

If the PQ prioritizes good governance, it will say essentially the same thing as the other opposition parties.

Why would a sovereignist be strongly attracted to a party which considers sovereignty to be a cumbersome ball and chain?

NOW

Fifth, the prospect of a third referendum defeat no longer arises in the terms of 1998 or 2008.

Ottawa’s crazy immigration levels, designed in particular to drown out the identity of French Quebec, are quickly closing the demographic window available for the sovereignists to achieve their goal.

So it’s now or never.

Let’s confront Quebecers with their responsibilities and assume once and for all the consequences of their choice.