(New York) Oil prices rebounded sharply on Tuesday in a nervous and volatile market, the subject of a thousand rumors before the meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies in the OPEC+ agreement, THURSDAY.
The price of a barrel of Brent from the North Sea for delivery in January rose 2.12%, to close at $81.68.
Its American equivalent, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) of the same maturity, gained 2.07%, to $76.41.
“The market is oscillating between pessimism and optimism before the meeting” of OPEC +, commented Matt Smith, analyst at Kpler. “Crude is rising today, but it could very well fall tomorrow. »
“We expect an extension of the production cuts (already announced) from Saudi Arabia and Russia, while other producers could show a willingness to reduce volumes to help prices rise,” explained Susannah Streeter, Hargreaves Lansdown analyst.
But, according to the Bloomberg agency, which cited delegates from the group of crude producers, no agreement had yet been concluded on Tuesday between, on the one hand, the leaders of the cartel, and, on the other, Angola and Nigeria, who want to return to quotas set for 2024, lower than current levels.
Nigeria is particularly concerned about the imminent opening, on its soil, of a giant refinery, whose capacity should reach 650,000 barrels per day once fully operational and which will have to be supplied with crude.
Furthermore, according to Carsten Fritsch, an analyst at Commerzbank, the United Arab Emirates, in particular, are opposed to the new reductions demanded by the Saudis, because they had obtained, in June, an increase in their quota in 2024.
Kpler is already counting on a continuation until the end of 2024 of the reduction in Saudi production of one million barrels per day, which began in July. “It will take at least that much to prevent prices from falling even further,” said Matt Smith.
“But we don’t see them convincing other producers to agree to additional contractions,” he added.
And even if the Saudi initiatives are renewed, “supply should be higher than demand in the first half” of 2024, according to this analyst.
To achieve a balanced market, according to estimates from the International Energy Agency (IEA), “an additional reduction of 500,000 barrels per day would be required,” emphasized Carsten Fritsch.
In addition to hopes of a compromise within OPEC+, prices also benefited on Tuesday from a decline in the dollar, as well as disruptions in the Black Sea after a violent storm.
Loadings of Kazakh oil at the Russian terminal in Novorossiysk had to be interrupted due to very unfavorable weather conditions.