New record. The price of gas peaked in Europe on Tuesday, December 21, to peak at 175 euros per megawatt hour (MWh). That is an increase of 400% over the last six months. Electricity also saw its prices swell, reaching a peak of 442 euros / MWh on December 20 in France, unheard of since 2009. Weather conditions, political tensions, risk of shortages: franceinfo deciphers this crisis which should persist throughout long winter.
1Why have energy prices been soaring for several months?
The causes of this increase are multiple and are in part linked to the Covid-19 pandemic. “With the development of vaccines, the world economy has experienced an unprecedented recovery, particularly in Asia and Europe”, explains to franceinfo Nicolas Goldberg, specialist in the energy sector for the firm Colombus Consulting. A revival of activity which generated “a peak in consumption, a shock in demand from September, driven by industries, which are very resource-intensive”, he emphasizes.
Another problem: natural gas reserves in Europe have not been fully replenished after the winter of 2020-2021, which is particularly long and cold. “Except in France, where it is compulsory”, points out Nicolas Goldberg. Added to this were geopolitical tensions with Russia, the main gas supplier to European countries, over new pipelines and facing the military escalation in eastern Ukraine. “Russia sells its gas for money, but above all to build relationships and defend its interests with other countries”, Nicolas Goldberg analysis. By deciding on the volumes exported, “Vladimir Putin is literally blowing hot and cold on the European gas market”.
Essential for heavy industry, gas is also widely used in Europe to produce electricity, hence the rise in electricity prices. To get out of nuclear power, countries like Germany and Belgium are indeed investing in gas power stations. Just like France, which will have a fourth thermal power station in February 2022 in Landivisiau, Brittany. A dependence on gas which is very expensive in this winter period, already synonymous with overconsumption of electricity due to heating. Finally, the contribution of renewable energies, such as wind power, is particularly low at the end of the year, for mainly meteorological reasons, such as the absence of wind.
2Can the situation deteriorate further?
Yes, according to the public authorities and many experts in the sector. At the end of September, thehe Energy Regulatory Commission was already planning “maintaining very high (gas) prices until the end of winter”, as explained by Frédérique Feriaud, director general of the services of the Energy Mediator. In turn, a sharp rise in electricity prices is expected at the start of 2022 – that is, after the holiday season, which traditionally corresponds to a low in consumption.
“Two factors will have to be watched very closely: the economic recovery and the weather conditions, Nicolas Goldberg list. Just for temperatures, a drop of 1 ° C causes an increase in national consumption equivalent to one and a half EPR (reactor). It is anything but negligible. “
3How is this reflected in France?
This winter, the situation is particularly critical in France, where many nuclear reactors are also unavailable due to ten-yearly outages or as a precautionary measure. More than a third of the nuclear fleet is currently concerned, forcing France to turn to thermal power plants and to solicit its neighbors. “Fortunately, there is a good interconnection within the European network”, notes Nicolas Goldberg, who specifies that France is used to importing electricity every winter, “while remaining mainly an exporter the rest of the year”.
The availability of nuclear power remains in any case an essential factor to watch this winter, especially as the French heat themselves more with electricity than their neighbors. “Ten-yearly outages are synonymous with very long shutdowns, which generally range from 100 to 180 days”, Nicolas Goldberg alert. In an alert published at the end of November, RTE, the operator of the French electricity network, called for a “particular vigilance” until February and March 2022, when 13 reactors will be shut down “following the postponement of maintenance programs for nuclear reactors since the start of the health crisis”.
4Should we fear a blackout during the winter?
The authorities have several means of action to prevent the whole of France from finding itself in the dark. They can restart certain nuclear reactors under maintenance, as requested by the Minister for the Ecological Transition, Barbara Pompili, to Jean-Bernard Levy, CEO of EDF. “I asked that EDF employees work so that we can open the reactors earlier and deal with any shortages”, she said on France Inter Sunday. “It is not enough to make a statement for the situation to improve, Nicolas Goldberg reacts, even if the maintenance release is anticipated, we have many safety standards in France and all of this takes time. ”
So what if there is too much demand on the electricity grid? Another emergency measure is to demand the shutdown of certain factories. “This is called erasure, details the specialist. The manufacturer is paid to shut down, at a rate that covers or even exceeds the production losses caused. “ A brake that primarily concerns the metallurgy, paper or chemical sectors, capable of stopping and restarting “without too much breakage”.
To relieve the network, it is finally possible to lower the general voltage, a measure “transparent”, because not very intrusive, which has never been taken in France. Or activate a last emergency lever: rotating load shedding, that is to say cutting off the electricity for tens of thousands of homes for two hours. “It had already been mentioned last year, but I did not believe it, says Nicolas Goldberg. Today, it is in the realm of the possible, but I really hope that it will not be used. The last time this happened on a large scale was over forty years ago. “