(Washington) As the war between Israel and Hamas rages, the United States has renewed its call to continue efforts towards the effective establishment of a Palestinian state, but few expect the success of such an initiative after decades of failure.
President Joe Biden’s administration has faced a barrage of criticism in the Arab world for its support of Israel’s retaliation following the bloody Hamas attack on October 7.
But the U.S. position has seen a subtle shift in tone in recent days, with several officials emphasizing the need to minimize the impact of the conflict on Palestinian civilians.
Speaking on Friday during a new trip to Israel, the head of American diplomacy Antony Blinken called for the establishment of “humanitarian pauses” allowing the delivery of international aid.
The Secretary of State then affirmed in Tel Aviv that the two-state solution represented “the best path, perhaps even the only one”.
This is the only way to ensure lasting security [à Israël] and the only way to ensure that Palestinians realize their legitimate aspirations for a state of their own.
Antony Blinken, United States Secretary of State
30 years ago, the Oslo Accords had already attempted to put in place such a solution, in vain. The Palestinian Authority enjoys only limited autonomy in parts of the West Bank, territory occupied by Israel, and has been weakened since Hamas took power in Gaza in 2007.
In Israel, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is a staunch opponent of the idea of a Palestinian state and heads the most right-wing government in the country’s history.
“Different future”
But for Brian Katulis, a researcher at the Middle East Institute in Washington, Washington’s call for a two-state solution represents a signal that “we are not going down a dark tunnel with no light at the end.”
“As unrealistic as this may seem in the short term, it is important to continue to say it, if only to send the message to stakeholders in the region […] of our recommitment to a certain horizon”, including “at least an idea of a different future”, he believes.
In Israel, at least 1,400 people have been killed according to the authorities since the start of the war, the majority civilians on the same day of the unprecedented Hamas attack.
In the Gaza Strip, incessant Israeli bombings, carried out in retaliation, have left more than 9,227 dead, including 3,826 children, according to the Hamas Ministry of Health.
“Calling for a two-state solution doesn’t mean that’s the goal and there will be a Palestinian state after that,” said a Washington-based diplomat working for a U.S. ally.
“It’s more that the Americans want to force the start of a conversation about what comes next,” he added, on condition of anonymity.
Well before the attacks of October 7, support for the effective establishment of a Palestinian state seemed to be gradually evaporating.
“Zombie diplomacy”
A poll conducted earlier this year by the Pew Research Center found that 35 percent of Israelis believed their country could coexist peacefully with an independent Palestinian state, a drop of 15 points from a decade ago. A similar fall was observed on the Palestinian side.
A few weeks before the Hamas attacks, Benjamin Netanyahu told the UN that the idea of a two-state solution belonged to the past, while the future was that of the normalization of Israel’s relations with the Arab States. A perspective which has also darkened since October 7.
PHOTO MARY ALTAFFER, ASSOCIATED PRESS
A few weeks before the Hamas attacks, Benjamin Netanyahu told the UN that the idea of a two-state solution belonged to the past
In an article published after these attacks, Anthony Cordesman, a researcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, notes that each previous attempt to move towards a two-state solution has actually led to new episodes of violence or tensions.
The current conflict shows that “a two-state solution may not be completely buried but so close to being defunct that every attempt to resurrect it amounts to nothing more than zombie diplomacy.” he writes.
However, Brian Katulis, who worked in the Palestinian Territories after the Oslo Accords, believes that there is no real alternative, casting doubt on the possibility that Israelis and Palestinians can coexist in the same state.
“As unrealistic as the idea of a two-state solution may seem to some, it is surely the most realistic option,” he says.