The flaring up of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is testing the limits of the power of the United States, which already has a lot to do with Ukraine. The double crisis highlights a complex geopolitical order in which “the indispensable nation”, as it likes to define itself, must deal with more significant players. Are the Americans still the “policemen of the world”?
US President Joe Biden seemed almost surprised that the show’s reporter 60 Minutes asked him, a few days after the Hamas attack, if his country had the capacity to face wars in Ukraine and Israel simultaneously.
PHOTO EVAN VUCCI, ASSOCIATED PRESS
President Joe Biden is greeted by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu after arriving in Tel Aviv on Wednesday.
“We are the United States of America, for God’s sake, the most powerful nation in history, not on the planet, in the history of the planet,” he stressed, adding that his country had an “obligation” to support both countries militarily while ensuring its own security.
“If we don’t do it, who will? », added the politician, displaying a confidence in the capabilities of the American state which is not particularly original within the country’s political elite even if a significant part of the Republican camp today displays an isolationist posture under the influence of former President Donald Trump.
PHOTO SERGEY PONOMAREV, THE NEW YORK TIMES ARCHIVES
Israeli soldiers massed in Be’eri, near the border with Gaza, on October 14
Ronald Pruessen, a professor emeritus at the University of Toronto who closely studies the evolution of American foreign policy, notes that Secretary of State Madeleine Albright once spoke of the United States as the “indispensable nation.” an expression used by several presidents.
This enthusiasm echoes the famous analysis of political scientist Francis Fukuyama, who postulated 30 years ago, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, that “history was over” and that the model of liberal democracy defended by Washington had triumphed.
The decades that followed, punctuated in particular by the attacks of September 11, 2001, led Mr. Fukuyama to temper his judgment.
They have also led to geopolitical upheavals which no longer allow the United States to assume the role of policeman of the planet, notes Mr. Pruessen.
The country no longer has the capacity to control all situations alone. His powers are more limited since they are exercised in a much more complex environment.
Ronald Pruessen, professor emeritus at the University of Toronto
China is a game changer
The emergence of China, which is continuing its economic and military development at high speed despite recent setbacks, is undoubtedly the most important element of the new situation.
PHOTO FLORENCE LO, REUTERS ARCHIVES
President Xi Jinping and members of the Chinese military during Martyrs’ Day celebrations at Tian’anmen Square in Beijing on September 30
The country’s leaders display “global ambitions” largely motivated by economic considerations, but they also want, underlines the analyst, a “certain degree of respect” erasing the memory of periods considered humiliating, notably the opium wars. triggered by Great Britain in the 19the century.
On the military level, Beijing is above all in a position to exert military influence in its immediate region, adds Mr. Pruessen, noting that the United States currently retains, in absolute terms, an advantage on the economic and military level. “It’s in relative terms that their power has changed,” he says.
In a study published in 2021, international relations specialist John Mearsheimer wrote that American leaders have long favored China’s economic development in the mistaken belief that this growth would go hand in hand with the country’s democratization.
PHOTO ARCHIVES REUTERS
The A.S.S. Gerald R. Fordthe world’s largest aircraft carrier, is fueled by the replenishment tanker USNS Laramie in the Eastern Mediterranean, off the coast of Israel, on October 11.
“There is no other historical example of a superpower actively promoting the emergence of a rival of equivalent size. And it is now too late to change things,” he warned.
Destabilizing Russia
Canadian journalist John Ripley, who recently wrote a book on the collapse of empires, notes that Beijing has in some way taken the place of Russia, which does not, he says, have the means to achieve its ambitions.
The Russian economy is not of comparable size to those of the United States and China and its military power is “largely overvalued”, which does not prevent it from playing a significant destabilizing role in its periphery, as in testifies to the war in Ukraine.
Other countries have gained economic and military importance and have the ambition to make their “own choices” without having to submit to the dictates of Washington or Beijing.
A multipolar world
India, under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, is in this group, as is Turkey, which is reluctant to have its behavior dictated to it in sensitive issues like that of Ukraine, even if it means displeasing its allies in the NATO.
Saudi Arabia, which had begun with the support of the United States to normalize its relations with Israel before the Hamas attack, is another emerging country with great ambitions, notes Thomas Juneau, of the University of Ottawa. .
PHOTO BANDAR ALGALOUD, REUTERS ARCHIVES
US President Joe Biden is received by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, in July 2022.
Joe Biden, before his election as president of the United States, announced that the regime of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman would be treated as a “pariah” because of its alleged role in the assassination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, but he was subsequently revised in the hope of reducing the price of oil on the world market. Riyadh has at the same time developed its contacts with China, which is buying more and more oil in the Middle East, and even with Iran, a long-time enemy.
From a period of American domination following the end of the Cold War, we have moved into a new multipolar configuration with two countries of superior power – the United States and China – and regional players able to weigh in the balance, notes Mr. Ripley.
The United States is fortunate to count on reliable and relatively powerful allies in Europe, with whom they form a substantial ideological bloc, while China prefers to build links opportunistically, underlines the author.
From one crisis to another, the constellation of actors will vary. We can no longer predict how countries will position themselves like during the Cold War.
John Ripley, journalist and author of a book on the collapse of empires
It remains to be seen how this new situation will translate into conflicts.
More conflicts on the horizon?
In particular, the journalist believes that regional conflicts are likely to arise as tensions between the United States and China intensify.
In a recent analysis relayed by The New York Timesa trained economist, Noah Smith, argued that the current “chaos” in the Middle East resulted from the erosion of American influence and the emergence of a more unstable multipolar world.
Mr. Juneau believes that the analysis is questionable to the extent that the action of Hamas, which is supported by Iran, arises first and foremost from local and regional considerations linked to its balance of power with Israel and its place within the Palestinian movement.
Mr. Pruessen, for his part, underlines that the impact of a bipolar system like that of the Cold War or multipolar on the number of armed conflicts, interstate or not, is a hotly debated subject for decades which has no answer. clear.
“A multipolar system can also be made to function effectively,” notes the historian, who is especially concerned about the fact that new conflicts, aided by technological advances, have the potential to be extremely destructive.
“The elements that motivate states to act have not necessarily changed, but they now operate in a powder keg,” he warns.