Deaths on the rise
Excess mortality is accelerating among Quebecers under 50 this fall. This is what the latest data published Thursday by the Institute of Statistics of Quebec (ISQ) revealed. Since the start of the year, the ISQ expected to record 1,991 deaths as of mid-September among those aged 0 to 49. On that date, deaths numbered more than 2,450, a difference of 23% compared to demographers’ forecasts. Excess mortality (or “excess mortality”) is defined by the National Institute of Public Health of Quebec as “the number of deaths from all causes which exceeds the number expected “in normal times””.
Large fluctuations
PHOTO PATRICE LAROCHE, LE SOLEIL ARCHIVES
Frédéric Fleury-Payeur, demographer at the Institute of Statistics of Quebec
The small number of deaths in this age group in a province of nearly 9 million inhabitants means that each variation will have very visible impacts in the data expressed as a percentage, explains Frédéric Fleury-Payeur, demographer at the Institute of Statistics of Quebec (ISQ). “If we expect to see around 60 deaths and there end up being 80, that’s 33% more, which may seem more striking than it actually is, because fluctuations are normal . » That said, over the last 18 months, actual mortality has almost always exceeded anticipated mortality for those aged 0 to 49. “So yes, we can say that there are phenomena behind the figures. »
Opioid crisis?
Among the possible explanations, Mr. Fleury-Payeur mentions the opioid crisis, which has been in the news for several months. “We know that Quebec is much less affected by this crisis than other provinces, for example British Columbia. But we know that there has been an increase here in recent years. This predominantly affects young adults, so this may be reflected in the data we collect. » In the rest of Canada, the opioid crisis is having significantly more significant impacts: in recent years, the mortality rate among people aged 25 to 40 has doubled there. “Is this also what forms part of the response in Quebec? Have there also been more deaths in road collisions? We will have to wait for the annual data provided to us by coroners, investigations into suspicious deaths and violent deaths. That’s when we can make a decision, because currently there are only hypotheses. »
Also among those aged 50 and over
The vast majority of deaths recorded in Quebec are among those aged 50 and over. Here too, a phenomenon of excess mortality is observed, according to ISQ calculations. Since the start of the year, reported deaths are 3% higher than experts had expected. “In fact, at the beginning of 2023, the observed data were lower than forecast, and since the beginning of August, they have been 7 or 8% higher,” says Frédéric Fleury-Payeur. Although it is too early at this time to draw conclusions, the demographer hypothesizes that respiratory viruses began circulating earlier this year. “We experienced it in the fall of 2022, where there was constant excess mortality which was due to COVID-19 and other respiratory viruses. Is this what we are seeing at the moment? It is too early to say, but it is one of the avenues to explore. »