Russia announced a significant increase in its defense budget on Thursday, signaling readiness for a protracted “hybrid war” in Ukraine, at a time when Western allies are in Kiev to discuss Ukrainian demands for military aid.
Ukraine launched a difficult counter-offensive in June to try to liberate the territories occupied by the Russian army, but it believes it needs more support to push back a Russia which, according to it, threatens all of Europe.
In this context, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky received NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg in kyiv. French and British defense ministers were also in Ukraine on Thursday.
On Friday, an international forum dedicated to defense industries is being held in kyiv.
In Moscow, the Kremlin justified the planned increase in the military spending budget by 68% in 2024 compared to the previous year to reach 10.8 trillion rubles (106 billion euros at today’s rate).
For Moscow, the West, by supporting kyiv, is waging “a hybrid war” against Russia in order to submit it to its hegemonic desires.
Defense will therefore represent around 30% of total federal spending in 2024 and 6% of its gross domestic product (GDP), a first in the history of post-Soviet Russia.
This volume illustrates Moscow’s determination to continue its assault, launched more than a year and a half ago. After a series of significant defeats in 2022, the Russian army has entrenched itself in southern and eastern Ukraine.
Imperialist delusions
“It is obvious that such an increase is necessary, absolutely necessary, because we are in a state of hybrid war,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters.
For Ukraine’s Western allies, Russia has launched an imperialist war against its neighbor and support for kyiv is essential to fending off Russian ambitions.
From the Ukrainian capital, alongside President Zelensky, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg denounced Moscow’s “imperialist delusions”, noting that “Ukrainians are fighting for their families […] and their freedom.
The head of the alliance also welcomed the recent advances in the Ukrainian counter-offensive, even if these remain reduced in both the South and the East.
“Today, your forces are advancing. They face tough battles, but they are gaining ground little by little,” Mr Stoltenberg said.
He noted that a coalition of around fifty countries has promised some 100 billion euros in military aid to Ukraine since the start of the conflict, half coming from the United States.
Mr. Zelensky, who is facing a decline in the willingness to support Ukraine in some capitals, insisted Thursday that his country still needed help, including anti-aircraft systems.
Winter is coming
He expects Moscow to attack the energy infrastructure this winter, as it did last year, to plunge Ukrainians into darkness and cold.
“The Secretary General agreed to make efforts to help us”, to “mobilize the members of the Alliance”, affirmed Mr. Zelensky.
French Minister of the Armed Forces Sébastien Lecornu arrived in Kiev on Thursday accompanied by defense industrialists to discuss the evolution of French aid to Ukraine and industrial partnerships in a conflict set to last.
Ukrainian Defense Minister Roustem Oumerov also received his British counterpart Grant Shapps, thanking him for his “unwavering support” and adding that he was “focused on (the issue of) anti-aircraft defense, artillery and anti-drone systems” which Kiev needs.
“Winter is coming, but we are ready. We are stronger together,” Mr. Oumerov wrote on X (ex-Twitter).
On the issue of Ukrainian membership in NATO, the Ukrainian president considered that it was only a “matter of time”.
Mr. Stoltenberg estimated that kyiv is “closer to NATO than ever”, although no timetable has been announced.
For Moscow, such membership is a red flag. Russian President Vladimir Putin also justifies his February 2022 offensive by the desire, according to him, of NATO to use Ukraine as a bridgehead to contain Russia.