Two months after the coup in Niger, the standoff drags on

(Niamey) Two months after the coup d’état of July 26 in Niger, the standoff between the military authorities who took power and ECOWAS which denounced this coup, supported by several Western countries, drags on.

The announcement on Sunday evening by Emmanuel Macron of the upcoming return of the French ambassador and French soldiers who were deployed in Niger, a demand from the Niamey regime, however, suggests prospects for development in this status quo.

What are the effects of ECOWAS sanctions?

The borders with Benin and Nigeria remain closed since the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) imposed heavy economic sanctions on Niger following the coup, affecting the supply of goods to first necessity of a country among the poorest in the world.

According to the United Nations, the prices of basic cereals in the diet of many Nigeriens (rice, sorghum, corn, millet) have increased by 12 to 24% since the start of the political crisis and sanctions.

And there is a shortage of medicines: “since September 19, the shortage rate has been around 30 to 55%,” laments the secretary general of the Niger Order of Pharmacists, Amadou Seyni Maïga.

The UN claims to have carried out “advocacy which made it possible to change the position of ECOWAS in order to take into account humanitarian needs”, but “humanitarian exemptions are slow to materialize”, concedes Louise Aubin, humanitarian coordinator of the United Nations in Niger.

However, economic exchanges continue between Niger and certain neighbors such as Algeria, and the sanctions have not undermined the resolve of the military authorities or their supporters.

Niger can also count on neighboring Mali and Burkina Faso, with which it has signed an alliance providing for mutual assistance in the event of an attack on the sovereignty and territorial integrity of one of these three countries led by the military.

Where are the negotiations with ECOWAS?

While affirming that it favored a resolution of the crisis through diplomatic channels, ECOWAS did not renounce either sanctions or a hypothetical military intervention to restore constitutional order. She even announced that the day and modalities of the operation had been decided.

But behind the scenes the member states are divided and the West African organization remains discreet on the modalities of this high-risk intervention for the country and the region.

The military regime, led by General Abdourahamane Tiani, who has appointed a government, for its part wishes to put in place a transition of three years “maximum” and in the streets of Niamey certain associations supporting the regime are even mobilizing for a longer period. long.

“ECOWAS is ready to seek a compromise, but it will not accept the 3-year transition,” says a regional diplomatic source.

Has France’s position changed?

Until Sunday evening, Paris and Niamey had stuck to their positions since the coup d’état of July 26 and relations are at their lowest point between the two capitals.

France refuses to recognize the legitimacy of the military regime and had until now turned a deaf ear to its demands, insisting that the deposed president Bazoum was its only interlocutor.

The generals of Niamey placed France in their sights as soon as they came to power.

They first denounced military cooperation agreements with Paris at the beginning of August and described the presence of some 1,500 soldiers deployed in the anti-jihadist fight as “illegal”. Numerous demonstrations supporting their demand for the withdrawal of French troops have taken place in recent weeks in Niamey.

They then demanded, at the end of August, the expulsion of the French ambassador Sylvain Itté.

Two requests to which Paris finally acceded on Sunday evening.

Has the security situation improved?

Niger has been undermined for several years by violence from armed jihadist groups.

Attacks have continued since the putsch, like the one which struck a detachment of Nigerien soldiers near Burkina Faso on August 15, killing 17 people.

The so-called “three borders” area in the southwest of the country, near Burkina and Mali, remains the most affected by the violence.

What future for the dignitaries of the fallen regime?

For two months, Mr. Bazoum has been sequestered in the presidential palace with his wife and son. Last Wednesday, his lawyer appealed to the ECOWAS Court of Justice to obtain his release and the restoration of constitutional order.

The authors of the coup d’état who had announced their intention to “pursue” Mr. Bazoum for “high treason” and “endangering the security” of the country, for their part launched search notices last Thursday against around twenty personalities of the fallen government.

The military, who came to power citing in particular the deterioration of the security situation and the fight against corruption, announced the creation of a commission whose main mission is the recovery of all public property illegally acquired and/or misappropriated. “.

Domestic political issues return to the debates in Niamey and the criticism does not spare Mr. Bazoum’s predecessor, Mahamadou Issoufou (2011-2021).

“For 12 years, this country was pillaged, ripped off. The first demand is first and foremost justice,” assures Clément Anatovi, an artist who initiated several public citizen meetings in Niamey.