(New York) Oil prices ended slightly lower on Monday, consolidating after a movement that took them to their highest level in almost ten months, in a market that is looking for reasons to continue to climb.
The price of a barrel of Brent from the North Sea for delivery in November closed almost in balance (-0.01%), at $90.64.
The price of a barrel of American West Texas Intermediate (WTI), due in October, lost 0.25%, to $87.29.
“We arrive at mid-month and we are trying to determine what quantities will leave Russia and Saudi Arabia”, which have committed to reducing their volumes by 1.3 million barrels per day, commented John Kilduff, of AgainCapital.
For the analyst, operators are concerned about demand in China in the coming months, based on the poor indicators published in recent weeks.
The question arises all the more, according to him, “as China has massively strengthened its stocks over the past year”, in particular by buying cheap Russian oil which was looking for new outlets after a good part of the most industrialized countries chose to do without it.
With significant reserves, China should also export significant quantities of diesel, which would help relieve this market, in need of alternatives to Russian diesel, popular with Americans and Europeans before the invasion of Ukraine. , anticipates John Kilduff.
On Monday, diesel for immediate delivery to the United States in the Gulf of Mexico region reached its highest level since late January.
John Kilduff believes that the period, namely the arrival of autumn, is ripe for questions about the match between supply and demand as the cold season approaches. But once the market is reassured, “prices could fall again,” he announces.
However, for Edward Moya of Oanda, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies in the OPEC+ agreement have reduced production enough to “ensure that the oil market remains tight until the end of the year.” ‘year. »
“The real challenge for Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ members is not managing the market until the end of the year […]but to determine what to do next year,” warn Eurasia Group analysts.
In 2024, with the expected increase in production from non-OPEC countries, the increase in supply could “equal […] or even exceed” that of demand “if the difficulties of the Chinese economy persist,” estimates the firm specializing in geopolitical analysts.