The early legislative elections scheduled for Sunday in Spain could allow a far-right party to obtain the balance of power and impose a hard line on several delicate issues on the next government that emerges from the polls.
According to the most recent polls, the conservative leaders of the People’s Party (PP), the main right-wing formation, are ahead of the Socialists, but could be forced to integrate the deputies of Vox (extreme right) to obtain a majority of seats.
The outgoing prime minister, the socialist Pedro Sánchez, who decided to call elections after suffering a major defeat in the regional elections in May, multiplies the warnings as the vote approaches about the impact that such a coalition would have on the direction of the country.
PHOTO EMILIO MORENATTI, ASSOCIATED PRESS
Pedro Sánchez, outgoing Prime Minister of Spain
Although he is evasive about the possibility of forming a coalition with Vox, the willingness of PP leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo to go ahead if necessary is in little doubt in the eyes of several analysts.
“He would have no reservations about proceeding in this direction,” notes Sebastiaan Faber, professor of Hispanic studies at Oberlin College in Ohio, who is following the election closely.
The analyst points to the fact that the PP did not hesitate to forge alliances with Vox after the recent elections to govern half a dozen regions of the country and many cities.
Cesáreo Rodríguez Aguilera de Prat, professor of politics at the University of Barcelona, thinks that the scenario of a PP-Vox coalition remains the most probable for the time being.
The Socialist Party (PSOE), he said, put forward during his mandate “very reasonable” economic and social policies, in particular by increasing the minimum wage, by introducing measures to protect access to housing or by facilitating access to euthanasia. But he did not succeed in fighting effectively “against the constant offensive” of the right to “delegitimize” Pedro Sánchez.
The politician has been criticized on numerous occasions by his opponents for having used the support of Catalan and Basque independence parties to pass bills.
His opponents, particularly within the PP, have gone so far as to accuse him of associating with “terrorists” to weaken the nation, even if the use of violence by Basque militants is a thing of the past.
Mr. Faber notes that accusations of this type are commonplace in the ranks of the Spanish right, but that they have been “boosted on steroids” in the current campaign.
Driven by nationalism
Joan Ramon Resina, who teaches at Stanford University, believes that Vox has taken advantage of the rise of Spanish nationalism sparked by tensions with Catalonia and does not miss an opportunity to evoke his desire to recentralize powers.
If they come to government nationwide, expect much more forceful attacks on Catalan institutions.
Joan Ramon Resina, of Stanford University
The far-right party does not stop there and does not hesitate to attack the PSOE on cultural issues by putting forward an “extremely conservative” discourse on issues such as abortion and euthanasia as well as the treatment of sexual minorities, notes Mr. Rodríguez Aguilera de Prat.
Immigration is another recurring theme, even if the Spaniards are less sensitive to this issue than several Mediterranean countries such as Greece and Italy.
The leader of Vox, Santiago Abascal, does not hesitate to use the usual xenophobic stereotypes of the far right to fuel the fears of the population, notes Mr. Faber, who does not rule out the possibility of a late rise of the socialist camp and allied far left parties.
“Neofascist” formation
The prospect of a decisive breakthrough for Vox is raising concerns far beyond Spain’s borders as the country has just taken over the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union.
Former British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, in a recent open letter, notes that the presence of the “neofascist” formation at the head of the Spanish state would mark the end of a taboo which dates back to the death of dictator Francisco Franco, half a century ago, and would be felt “everywhere on the continent”.
It would notably have the effect, he says, of energizing the radical formations which are progressing in Germany, Austria and Finland and of strengthening the Italian government of Giorgia Meloni, who came to power at the head of a far-right party.
Mr. Faber notes that Vox does not claim its link with Francoism, even if some of its policies are in line with those of the Caudillo, particularly with regard to the defense of the nation and the traditional family.
“The Spanish right has succeeded in controlling the themes of the political campaign. The culture wars have taken over the assessment of economic and social results,” notes the analyst, who draws a parallel with the evolution of American politics.